Korean Peninsula experts in Washington, D.C., said on the 29th local time that the summit between Korea and the United States held in Gyeongju produced meaningful results on both the economic and security fronts.
Experts said the trade deal was a better-than-expected outcome for Korea, especially considering that the structure of Korea's investment in the United States remained a sticking point until the final stage of the negotiations. However, they noted that some provisions fell short, including adjustments to automobile tariff and the issue of worker visas.
Patrick Cronin, chair for Asia-Pacific security at the Hudson Institute, said, "President Lee Jae-myung orchestrated a virtually faultless, reciprocal meeting with President Trump," adding, "Korea agreed to strengthen strategic cooperation in shipbuilding along with annual investment in the United States capped at $20 billion." He also said, "If the United States supports Korea's acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines, the navy's blue-water operational capabilities will be greatly enhanced."
However, Cronin said, "The problem lies less in the transaction itself than in the lack of a comprehensive strategy to underpin it," adding, "Kim Jong-un is accelerating nuclear development and deepening cooperation with China and Russia, while Xi Jinping is consolidating China's edge in supply chains and advanced industries through the Fourth Plenum."
Robert Rapson, former chargé d'affaires ad interim at the U.S. Embassy in Korea, said, "President Lee Jae-myung and his aides extended excellent hospitality to President Trump," adding, "The positive mood established at the August Washington meeting carried over this time as well." He added, "Details of the trade agreement, including the $350 billion investment commitment in the United States, could act as variables in Korea-U.S. relations," and "In particular, requests related to spent nuclear fuel reprocessing and the nuclear-powered submarine program could be tied to U.S. policy toward China and North Korea."
Tom Ramage, economic policy analyst at the Korea Economic Institute (KEI), said, "With the trade agreement, Korea secured predictability in trade," adding, "Thanks to the annual $20 billion ceiling and a partitioning investment approach, the burden on foreign exchange reserves will be eased." However, he said, "A 15% automobile tariff is an achievement, but it is disappointing given the duty-free benefits enjoyed under past FTAs," and "It is also a limitation that the worker visa issue was not mentioned."
Andrew Yeo, the Korea chair at the Brookings Institution, said, "Measures such as cutting automobile tariff rates and setting an investment cap are favorable to Korea," adding, "Diplomatically, it also created a positive mood ahead of the APEC summit." He predicted, "Trump-style trade policy will use tariff as leverage to pressure both allies and competitors, becoming a 'MAGA style.'"
Patricia Kim, a fellow at the Brookings Institution, said, "Korea made special preparations for President Trump, and the gifts of a gold crown and the highest order were diplomatic symbols," adding, "Ultimately reaching an agreement is evidence that the two countries shared the will to strengthen economic cooperation."
Meanwhile, some experts said a meeting between President Trump and State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong-un, which fell through this time, could be revived in conjunction with a trip to China early next year. Former Ambassador Rapson said, "If Trump's visit to China materializes, it could provide an opening for a North Korea–U.S. meeting," and Yeo said, "As long as Trump maintains a willingness to talk, the possibility of resumption remains open."