Observers said Europe's "far-right populism" could be in jeopardy after Dutch voters, long seen as a bellwether for the spread of the far right, backed a centrist party rather than a far-right party in a snap general election.
According to Bloomberg and others on the 29th, exit polls show that the centrist party Democrats 66 (D66), led by Rob Jetten, is expected to take 27 of the 150 seats. The Party for Freedom (PVV), led by far-right leader Geert Wilders, is projected to secure 25 seats, two fewer. In addition, the center-right liberal People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) is seen winning 23 seats, and the left-leaning GreenLeft/Labor Party alliance 20 seats.
If the exit poll results are confirmed as is, Wilders' political influence, which once shook European politics, appears set to weaken rapidly. Wilders caused a sensation by finishing first in the November 2023 general election with the pledge of the "strictest immigration policy in history," earning the moniker the "Trump of Europe." But in just two years he ceded the top spot to Democrats 66, and became an outcast as other parties refused to let him join a coalition.
The PVV has been sputtering ever since the general election. After its victory, it formed a coalition with three conservative parties, but the partners did not support Wilders becoming prime minister. In the end, independent Dick Schoof took the post. It was the first time since 1982 that the leader of the winning party in a general election did not become prime minister. In June, the PVV quit the coalition, saying anti-immigration policies were not being properly implemented, and forced a snap election as a high-stakes move, but it ultimately failed.
The Netherlands was among the first in Western Europe to reveal a far-right tilt two years ago, and this election had been viewed as a gauge of the far right's influence in Europe. The PVV's weakness in the Dutch election suggests that far-right parties in other countries could also face a crisis.
The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) said, "The possibility of Wilders' fall offers an important lesson for Europe's right-wing populists who have surged in the polls," adding, "Leaders including Italy's nationalist right-wing Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni have worked within the existing political system, adjusted priorities through compromises with partners, and demonstrated political staying power. By contrast, those lacking governing ability could ultimately be weeded out," it suggests.
Rem Korteweg, a senior research fellow at the Clingendael Institute, said, "Wilders' fate is a warning in the fragmented political systems of many European countries—especially those run by multiparty coalitions—that parties failing to deliver results can be quickly shunned by voters." Hans Vollaard, an associate professor of political science at Utrecht University's School of Governance, said, "There is no chance that Wilders will take part in the next government."
That said, in other Western European countries, far-right parties still hold an edge in opinion polls. In France, as three prime ministers appointed by President Emmanuel Macron have been voted down in succession, National Rally (RN), which holds 142 seats and is led by Marine Le Pen, is making gains. In Germany, Alternative for Germany (AfD) continues to draw strong support, including topping approval ratings.
In Western Europe, one reason for the particular contraction of Wilders' movement is seen as an excessive fixation on immigration issues. The BBC said, "This election was fought in part over immigration and overcrowded refugee facilities, but the biggest issue for voters was a chronic shortage of about 400,000 dwellings for a population of 18 million," adding, "The centrist party led by Jetten said it would build 10 new towns as part of efforts to solve the housing problem."