U.S. President Donald Trump reopened the possibility of a "meeting with Chairperson Kim Jong-un" on his Asia tour. But North Korea sent the opposite signal.
Korean Central News Agency reported on the 26th that Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui, North Korea's top diplomat, will visit Russia and Belarus to coincide with President Trump's visit to Korea. The visit comes at the invitation of the foreign ministries of Russia and Belarus. The specific schedule was not disclosed, but it is expected to take several days to visit the two countries back-to-back. It will be Choe's first visit to Russia in a year. She paid a courtesy call on President Vladimir Putin during her official visit to Russia in late October last year and held the "first North Korea-Russia strategic dialogue."
President Donald Trump will visit Korea from the 29th to the 30th to attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Gyeongju. As he set off on his tour on the 24th, Trump said he was "100% open" to meeting the Chairperson. But the likelihood has grown that North Korea's top diplomat will not be on the Korean Peninsula during Trump's visit.
Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui is North Korea's top expert on negotiations with the United States. She attended without fail the North Korea-U.S. summits in Singapore in 2018 and Hanoi in 2019. She also played a key role during the "surprise meeting" at Panmunjom in June 2019. When Trump proposed a "lightning meeting" on Twitter at the time, Choe, then first vice foreign minister, responded that it was a "very interesting proposal," and the meeting quickly gained momentum. This time, however, she chose a trip to Moscow instead of engaging.
With North Korea having issued no official response to Trump's proposal, the disclosure of Choe's plan to visit Russia is widely seen as an indirect "rejection." The interpretation is that North Korea deliberately showcased its closeness with Russia to boycott the U.S. proposal.
Behind North Korea's refusal to meet lies the issue of "nuclear-armed state status." North Korea is demanding "recognition as a nuclear-armed state" and "sanctions relief" as conditions for talks. On the 24th, President Trump said, "I think they (North Korea) are a kind of nuclear power." He added, "They have a lot of nuclear weapons."
This could be interpreted as partially accommodating North Korea's demands. However, what North Korea wants is recognition of a "political status" accompanied by sanctions relief. Trump's remarks are closer to acknowledging the military reality that "they have nuclear weapons." The official U.S. government position also maintains the goal of "North Korea's denuclearization." From the Chairperson's standpoint, it is unsatisfactory.
There is also the possibility that North Korea has revised its negotiating strategy. Analysts say the "no deal" in Hanoi in 2019 served as a lesson. The view is that Pyongyang seeks to prioritize working-level talks over a "top-down" approach in which the supreme leader makes the final call.
Of course, the possibility of a meeting has not completely disappeared. Both President Trump and the Chairperson have flaunted personal ties. Even if Foreign Minister Choe does not attend, the meeting itself could hold significance. From North Korea's perspective, the Chairperson could showcase a sequence of meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping, Russian President Putin, and then President Trump. Ahead of the ninth party congress, it could be used as a propaganda tool to elevate the supreme leader's stature.