Prices for turkey, the essential dish on the U.S. Thanksgiving table, are soaring. Outbreaks of disease and rising production expenses have pushed the number of turkeys raised on U.S. farms to the lowest level in decades. The number of turkeys being raised in the United States has plummeted this year to the lowest level in 40 years. Wholesale prices have jumped nearly 40% from a year earlier this month.
According to USA Today and others on the 22nd local time, the biggest drag on the U.S. turkey market is clearly disease. Two viruses have hit farms at the same time.
The first is highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). As the name suggests, it is a bird flu with very high transmissibility and a high fatality rate. Since 2022, the number of turkeys that have died or been culled due to HPAI has approached 18.7 million in the United States alone. In particular, this year HPAI spread in tandem with the fall migration season for waterfowl. Just last month, major turkey-producing areas in the Midwest, such as South Dakota, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, were affected by HPAI. About 606,600 birds were culled in the process.
On top of that came a second calamity, avian metapneumovirus (AMPV). This virus has a lower fatality rate than HPAI. Instead, it causes respiratory illness in birds and spreads at an extremely rapid pace. In particular, new subtypes (type A and type B) detected early last year spread so quickly that within six months they had reached 26 U.S. states—more than half the country—and two provinces in Canada.
According to the National Turkey Federation, between 60% and 80% of U.S. turkey flocks were infected with AMPV in 2024. Rather than killing turkeys immediately, this virus sharply reduces laying rates in females. It blocks the supply of poults to replenish birds culled due to HPAI and other causes. When this virus spreads, turnover at turkey farms is hampered.
According to the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF), the total number of turkeys raised in the United States this year is estimated at about 195 million. That is the smallest figure in nearly 40 years. Compared with about 303 million at the 1996 peak, it is a 36% plunge.
Total U.S. turkey production this year is expected to be about 4.84 billion pounds by weight (about 2.2 billion kg). That is down about 5% from last year.
With the biggest season of the year approaching and turkey supplies running short, market prices reacted immediately. The AFBF said in its recently released Market Intel report that a combination of economic factors and disease issues has pushed wholesale turkey prices up about 40%. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecast this year's Thanksgiving turkey wholesale price at $1.32 per pound, up 4 cents from last month's outlook. Compared with last year's $0.92 per pound, that is a jump of 40 cents (about 43%).
Turkey is the centerpiece of a traditional Thanksgiving dinner. No matter how high prices go, a "Thanksgiving without turkey" is out of the question. AFBF President Zippy Duvall said in a media interview that "rising supply expenses, trade disputes, and avian-related diseases have all dealt a heavy blow to farms," but added, "Turkey supplies are tight this year, but there should be enough to meet holiday demand."
Some retailers moved early to soothe consumers by announcing discounts. On the day, Walmart, the largest U.S. retailer, said it would again offer a "Thanksgiving discount basket," including turkey, at the lowest prices since 2019. For retailers, Thanksgiving turkeys serve as a kind of "loss leader." Rather than making a profit on the turkey itself, the strategy is to draw in customers with cheap turkeys so they also buy other high-margin items such as stuffing, cranberry sauce, and pumpkin pie.