The fourth plenary session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (fourth plenum), which opened on the 20th for four days, will end on the 23rd. Ahead of a U.S.-China leaders' meeting on the sidelines of next week's Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Gyeongju, with the tariff war intensifying, China is expected to present a five-year economic blueprint centered on cutting-edge technological innovation.
According to the state-run Xinhua News Agency, the Communist Party of China's Central Committee began the fourth plenum on the morning of the 20th. A plenum is a core power body of the Communist Party, a shortened term for the full session of the Central Committee. Major issues are discussed at each plenum every year. Starting with a work report by China's President Xi Jinping on the first day, Central Committee members have been holding closed-door meetings through today.
This fourth plenum will mainly discuss the 15th five-year plan (2026–2030), which begins next year. With the tariff war ongoing and the domestic economy mired in a slump, measures to break through are expected to be presented. The results of the discussions will be released in the form of a brief report after the closing later today. However, judging from past precedent, while the "communiqué of the plenary session" is expected to be announced on the closing day of the fourth plenum, the "proposal on formulating the 15th five-year plan" is likely to be announced a few days later. Formal approval is scheduled to take place at the National People's Congress (NPC) in Mar. next year.
The future vision China will unveil appears to be focused on economic growth through advanced technological development. China, which has been grappling with unrevived domestic demand since COVID-19 and a real estate slump that has dragged on for more than five years, has faced additional headwinds this year from the tariff war and export controls on key industries, and the aim is to overcome them through technological innovation.
Minister Li Liecheng of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said, "During the 15th five-year plan period, we will accelerate the building of a modernized industrial system based on advanced manufacturing and will continue to strengthen the foundation of China-style modernization," adding, "We must strengthen research, development, and application rollout of advanced technologies, pioneer new fields such as humanoids (human-type robots), brain-machine interfaces, the Metaverse, and quantum information, and create future industry pilot zones."
China's state media have also been stressing "high-quality development" day after day recently. On the 21st, the state-run People's Daily said in a front-page article, "External shocks are growing and internal tasks are not few, but we must overcome uncertainty with the 'certainty of high-quality development,'" adding, "At its core is the 'new-quality' productive force characterized by innovation. This is expected to be a key task of the 15th five-year plan." Xinhua News Agency also said in an editorial on the 20th, "During the 15th five-year plan period, we should base development on 'high-quality development' and rapidly build a new development pattern."
Liu Dian, associate researcher at Fudan University's China Research Institute, told Hong Kong's Sing Tao Daily, "Scientific and technological innovation is the key driver in pursuing high-quality development," noting, "The 15th five-year plan will focus on accelerating research breakthroughs in fields such as semiconductors, artificial intelligence (AI), and quantum science and technology." He particularly emphasized that priority will be given to finding breakthroughs in technology areas where China currently has no choice but to rely on external sources.
The Communist Party of China is also set to carry out a large-scale personnel reshuffle through this fourth plenum. Through this, it will be possible to gauge whether Xi will serve another term and the succession lineup.
Earlier, the Ministry of National Defense disclosed on the 17th, three days before the opening of the fourth plenum, the expulsion of nine people, including He Weidong, vice chairman of the Central Military Commission, who was third in the Chinese military's hierarchy, and Miao Hua, director of the CMC Political Work Department, who was fifth. As a result, personnel changes are likely for positions such as vice chairman of the Central Military Commission—considered one of the core key posts in China's leadership—and for military commissioners, about half of whom are vacant.
There is also a possibility of a large-scale reshuffle of Central Committee members. Recently, the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post (SCMP) said, "At least nine Central Committee members will be replaced," calling it the largest reshuffle since 2017.