With the election of a new Japanese prime minister ahead, the coalition between the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito that has continued for 26 years has collapsed, heightening uncertainty in Japanese politics.
The Yomiuri Shimbun on the 12th said, "The 26-year coalition history of the Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito is coming to an end," and reported, "For the Liberal Democratic Party, the price of losing the 'safety device' of being a coalition with Komeito is great, and the responsibility to find a breakthrough from 'politics that cannot decide,' even while in power, lies with the LDP as the largest party."
Earlier, on the 10th, Komeito leader Saito Tetsuo notified Liberal Democratic Party President Takaichi Sanae of his party's exit from the coalition during a leaders' meeting. Komeito, dissatisfied with the LDP's handling of the "slush fund scandal," said it would not recommend the LDP candidate in the prime ministerial selection.
Japan's prime ministerial election is held with separate votes in both the House of Representatives (lower house) and the House of Councilors (upper house). If no one wins a majority in the first round, the top two finishers go to a runoff. In the runoff, the candidate with more votes wins regardless of whether they secure a majority.
If the results of the House of Representatives and the House of Councilors differ, the House of Representatives result prevails, so the direction of the lower house is crucial. The LDP currently holds 196 of the 465 seats in the lower house. Without cooperation from Komeito and the opposition, it cannot take power.
The Constitutional Democratic Party, which has the second-most seats after the LDP, is pushing to rally the opposition, raising the possibility of a change of government if the opposition unites. However, the opposition camp is currently divided, so if each party votes for its own leader, LDP President Takaichi , of the largest party, will be elected prime minister.
It would still be a problem even if Takaichi becomes prime minister. With the coalition with Komeito broken under a divided legislature, governing has become more difficult than during Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru's term.
The Mainichi Shimbun assessed that under the LDP–Komeito coalition government, securing the votes needed to pass an extra budget was possible with cooperation from either the second- or third-largest opposition party, but that is no longer the case now that Komeito has split away.