French politics has fallen back into turmoil. As three prime ministers appointed by President Emmanuel Macron have stepped down and the political situation is deadlocked, the only figure to expand her presence has been Marine Le Pen of the hard-line conservative party National Rally (RN). The Financial Times (FT) on the 9th local time assessed Le Pen as "the sole winner" of this political crisis.
Macron's governing base has shaken rapidly in recent months. The third prime minister's resignation exposed a leadership vacuum in the government, and the parliament remains gridlocked. Le Pen did not miss the opening. She immediately called for an early general election "to break out of national stagnation," positioning RN as "a force that can achieve stability amid chaos." Macron said he would avoid an early election and appoint a new prime minister, but Le Pen had already imprinted on the public the image of "the prepared alternative."
According to polls, RN has secured a solid base of about one-third of the entire electorate. She lost to Macron in the last presidential runoff, but his missteps and the split in the centrist camp have rebuilt Le Pen's momentum. RN holds 120 of the 577 seats in the lower house, its largest tally ever, and projections say it is likely to win more seats if a general election is held.
FT noted that "Macron's successive political mistakes have given Le Pen an opening." Le Pen has worked for years to erase the racist and anti-Semitic image inherited from her father and party founder, Jean-Marie Le Pen. The Macron government's recent instability is bolstering Le Pen's "normalization" strategy.
Le Pen also has weaknesses. She was convicted on charges of embezzling European Union (EU) funds and is appealing. But despite such legal risks, her approval ratings have barely wavered. FT analyzed that "Macron's leadership vacuum is proving a more serious political variable than Le Pen's legal troubles."
In recent years, Le Pen has shed her hard-line image and doubled down on a course touting "moderate conservatism." She has put party leader Jordan Bardella out front to emphasize fiscal discipline and market-friendly policies, focusing on calming anxiety among corporations and investors. She has also backed away from once-touted plans for large-scale expenditure, underscoring fiscal soundness, in the same vein.
With these shifts, the line between RN and the traditional conservative party Les Républicains (LR) is growing blurry. Some conservative politicians are seen exploring alignment with RN. Erwan Balanant of the MoDem party said, "Within the conservative camp, the temptation to unite with RN is growing," adding, "a grand alliance of the right could become a reality." FT called this "a move similar to Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's formation of a right-wing alliance."
Polls also back Le Pen's rise. In a survey by French pollster Toluna Harris, Le Pen and Bardella led the presidential field at 34% support. Gabriel Attal and former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe, figures from Macron's camp, were at 12% and 15%, respectively. FT reported, "Voters are weary of being told to use their ballots 'to stop RN,' and are tilting toward Le Pen, who symbolizes political stability."
Experts say RN has already established itself as a mainstream party. Political scientist Jean-Yves Camus said, "As the perception spreads that the existing political elite are cut off from the public, Le Pen is positioning herself as 'the messenger of real change.'" In practice, RN is also investing in personnel management. Learning from cases in the last election where candidates fell one after another over inappropriate remarks, it is strengthening media training and policy briefings for new candidates.
In the end, some say the biggest beneficiary of France's political turmoil is Le Pen. Amid Macron's lack of leadership and fatigue with centrist politics, she has settled in not as a peripheral force but as "an alternative to power." FT said, "In France, RN is no longer on the fringes," adding, "Macron's wobble is accelerating Le Pen's entry into power."