The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leadership election in Japan is one day away. As the LDP has, for the first time since its founding, become a minority ruling party in both the House of Representatives (lower house) and the House of Councilors (upper house), the vote is seen as potentially triggering a sweeping political realignment. Attention is also focusing on whether Japan's first female prime minister could emerge.
According to local media on the 2nd, five candidates are running in the election to choose the successor to Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru. Among them, Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Minister Koizumi Shinjiro and former Economic Security Minister Takaichi Sanae had formed a two-way race at the top, but in the final stretch, Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi Yoshimasa, a centrist moderate, has mounted a strong chase, reshaping the contest into a three-way race.
Under Japan's parliamentary cabinet system, the leader of the ruling party becomes prime minister. The first round is decided by a total of 590 votes: 295 votes from members of the Diet and 295 votes converted on a 1-to-1 basis from party members' and supporters' ballots. If no candidate wins a majority in the first round, the top two advance to a runoff. In the runoff, the outcome hinges on lawmakers' votes, reflecting 295 votes from Diet members and one vote from each of the 47 prefectures, for a total of 342.
Polling by local media shows that no candidate has secured a majority so far, making a runoff likely as it was last year. Surveys to date indicate that Minister Koizumi leads among lawmakers, while former Economic Security Minister Takaichi holds an edge among party members and supporters. With Minister Hayashi also gaining late momentum, some predict the runoff lineup could change.
Public opinion is especially focused on whether this election will produce Japan's first female prime minister. The contender is former Economic Security Minister Takaichi Sanae, who has entered the race. Takaichi topped the first round of the leadership election last year and is widely known in Korea by the nickname "female Abe."
Takaichi, the former economic security minister, is a politician who once earned the nickname "Taliban Takaichi" for her hard-line conservative stance. Born in 1961 in Yamato-Koriyama in northern Nara Prefecture, her mother was a police officer in Nara Prefecture and her father was a salaried worker at a Toyota-affiliated automaker. Given that prominent Japanese politicians typically hail from major political families, this background is unusual. Before entering politics, she worked as an anchor for broadcasters including Fuji TV, won a seat as an independent in 1993, and joined the LDP in 1996.
In particular, Takaichi has made clear her hard-line conservative ideology while inheriting former Prime Minister Abe's political and economic policies. After both were elected to the House of Representatives in 1993, she and Abe became political allies, aligning across issues including the imperial family and economic policy. Indeed, Takaichi branded her own economic policy package—which emphasizes ▲bold monetary policy ▲swift fiscal policy ▲a new growth strategy—as "Sanaenomics," inheriting "Abenomics," signaling her intent to carry it forward. Recently, on investment relations with the United States, she was the only candidate to hint at the possibility of renegotiation, and she also issued strong remarks such as "The Minister should attend Takeshima Day."
However, overall, observers say Takaichi is seeking to shed her hardline image and pivot toward an "moderate conservative" course. A prime example is her campaign pledge for a "refundable tax credit" combining tax cuts and cash payments to support low- and middle-income households. On visits to Tokyo's Yasukuni Shrine, which have been a point of contention with the Korean government, she signaled change by adopting an ambiguous stance instead of offering a clear answer.
Experts believe that, as a woman, Takaichi's symbolism is boosting her support. Nakabayashi Mieko, a professor at Waseda University, said, "Voters don't know much about what kind of person she is, but they are focusing on the symbolism of a woman becoming prime minister," adding, "It feels similar to when President Obama was elected in the United States in 2008."