U.S. President Donald Trump strongly condemned Russia's invasion of Ukraine in his United Nations General Assembly address while minimizing direct references to China. Academia in China and Hong Kong interpreted this as a sign that Beijing could see potential for easing confrontation with the United States.
According to the South China Morning Post (SCMP) in Hong Kong on the 24th (local time), President Trump, in his speech to the 80th session at the U.N. headquarters in New York the previous day, said Russian President Vladimir Putin had no will to end the war early and warned, "If Russia is not ready to end the war, the United States will impose very strong tariffs." He then said, "Ukraine can regain its territory as it originally was," stepping back from his past stance that the transfer of Ukrainian territory was inevitable. This was seen as a sign that Trump's pro-Putin line, shown while he continued summit talks with Putin to mediate an end to the Ukraine-Russia war, was wobbling.
By contrast, he held back from a direct offensive against China. Trump noted that China and India were funding the war by buying Russian crude, but he did not mention sensitive issues such as the U.S.-China trade conflict or the technology hegemony dispute. Experts said this choice could help ease China's wariness.
James Downs, a professor at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, said, "By putting strong pressure on Russia without directly targeting China, Trump left room for negotiations with China while checking Moscow," adding, "China could take this as a signal of easing confrontation."
Chinese experts, however, made clear that the speech was not simply a pro-China message. Choi Hong-jian, a professor at Beijing Foreign Studies University, analyzed, "Trump's ultimate goal is to improve relations with Russia to some extent to split China and Russia, and to increase U.S. influence in U.S.-China competition." China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs took a defensive stance, saying, "Cooperation between China and Russia complies with World Trade Organization (WTO) rules and should not be interfered with."
Warnings were also raised about Trump's unpredictability and policy volatility. Yang Cheng, director of the Shanghai Global Governance think tank in China, said, "Trump has repeatedly shown unpredictability and an opportunistic attitude, and Russia is well aware of this," adding, "China-Russia relations are structurally deeply rooted and will not be shaken in the short term." Hao Nan, a researcher at the private think tank Beijing Charhar Institute, also assessed, "China does not view Trump's tariff threats as a consistent long-term strategy but as a tactical means."
Chinese experts also viewed the "minimization of references to China" in Trump's speech as linked to the U.S.-China negotiation phase. President Trump recently disclosed that he had a phone call with President Xi Jinping and hinted at the possibility of a separate meeting at next month's Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit. Professor Downs said, "This speech sought to apply strong pressure on Russia while taking a cautious approach with China," adding, "China will interpret this as the United States adjusting the level of confrontation in light of the negotiation phase."
However, experts predicted China would not view this only optimistically. Zhang Xin, a professor at East China Normal University, explained, "China-Russia relations are no longer formed solely by a trilateral framework with the United States," adding, "It is premature to think Russia will drift away from China based on Trump's remarks alone."