The U.S. Democratic Party has refused to process the federal budget bill and has pulled out the government shutdown card. If the two parties fail to reach a budget deal by midnight on the 30th, starting on the 1st of next month the U.S. federal government will effectively grind to a halt except for essential operations. Democrats are demanding the restoration of health insurance policies abolished by the Donald Trump administration and the Republican Party. But on the 22nd (local time), Republicans pushed back, calling it a "political hostage situation," and with a week left until the deadline, a shutdown is drawing closer to reality.
In the United States, a shutdown occurs when the president and Congress fail to pass 12 annual appropriations bills (the budget) before the new fiscal year (which starts every Oct. 1) begins. It means government agencies shut down operations due to a lack of funding. As the term suggests, government functions come to a complete stop.
When a shutdown hits, operations at all federal agencies are halted except for essential services directly tied to public life and safety, such as defense, public security, firefighting, prisons, and air traffic control. National parks and museums close, and administrative services like passport issuance stop. About 800,000 federal employees immediately lose their paychecks. They either go on mandatory furlough without pay, or, even if designated as essential personnel, must work without pay.
Generally, if there is not enough time to agree on a budget, Congress first passes a continuing resolution (CR) to freeze spending at current levels and buy negotiation time. Republicans now have proposed a seven-week "clean" continuing resolution to keep the government running as is through Nov. 21 with no strings attached. But Democrats have countered with a four-week continuing resolution that adds several demands, including restoring health insurance policies.
Back in 2013, the two parties faced off over a shutdown with their roles reversed. Sen. Ted Cruz, a hardliner within the Republican Party, led a 17-day shutdown demanding the repeal of "Obamacare." Conversely, Democrats, like today's Republicans, called for passing a "clean budget bill."
This time, Democrats are willing to risk a shutdown under the banner of restoring health insurance policies. On this role reversal, Republican Rep. Rich McCormick told the political outlet Politico that his "head is about to explode," adding, "I've never seen such a ridiculous argument in my life." Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer of the Democratic Party countered, "The situation is different," saying, "They (Republicans) tried to take away what existed, and we are trying to restore what was taken."
On the 22nd, the Washington Post analyzed that the reason Democrats are taking a hard line is because "there is a widespread perception within the party that President Trump is ignoring Congress' constitutional prerogatives and running the government unilaterally."
Experts said that if the standoff continues as it is now, the likelihood of a shutdown becoming reality is very high. President Donald Trump is scheduled to meet with Democratic leaders this week. However, regarding the timing of the meeting, Trump offered a pessimistic outlook, saying, "I want to meet with them (Democrats), but it will have no effect (on the shutdown)." He then directly raised the possibility of a shutdown, adding, "The country may have to close for a while."
If a shutdown materializes, it delivers an immediate and significant shock to the U.S. economy. During the record 35-day shutdown in 2018–2019 under the Trump administration, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated that U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) fell by $11 billion (about 15 trillion won).
Political analyst Nate Silver questioned the Democratic strategy in an op-ed for the New York Times (NYT). He said, "Democrats chose 'health insurance' instead of 'tariffs,' which inflicted the biggest hit on Trump's approval rating," adding, "If Republicans compromise on health insurance, Democrats could lose an important attack card in the 2026 midterm elections."
A blame game over the shutdown is also inevitable. In the past, the side that drove the shutdown faced public criticism. Republicans are highlighting "Democratic responsibility," saying Democrats are making unreasonable demands this time. Democrats, on the other hand, argue that Republicans, who control both the administration and Congress, are refusing to negotiate at all, and are pushing back by branding it a "Trump shutdown."