In North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW), Germany's most populous state, the far-right party Alternative for Germany (AfD) surged in local elections, shocking the established political bloc. As this election was seen as the first test for the coalition of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Social Democratic Party (SPD) led by Chancellor Friedrich Merz, AfD's performance sent ripples through Germany's political landscape.
According to the Financial Times (FT) on the 15th (local time), AfD won 14.5% in this election, nearly tripling its support from 5% in 2020. While short of the 21% it recorded in the federal election in February, it drew attention as a result of penetrating working-class votes in the Ruhr, a western industrial heartland beyond the former East German regions. The Ruhr has seen high immigration and has been hit hard by recession due to the decline of the steel industry. AfD advanced to runoffs by securing close to 30% support in Gelsenkirchen, a traditional SPD stronghold, and it took about 20% in Duisburg, home to the headquarters of German steel corporations Thyssenkrupp.
SPD took just 22% in this election, its worst result since World War II. The Green Party also fell to 13.5%, down 6.5 percentage points from 2020. Baerbels Bas, SPD co-leader and Minister of Labor, acknowledged defeat in a recent interview, saying, "We could not stop the decline." By contrast, CDU remained in the lead with 33%, though that was 1 percentage point lower than in 2020. NRW Governor Hendrik Wüst said, "We thank voters for their trust," while adding that AfD's surge "shows that centrist parties failed to provide answers on immigration and welfare."
Chancellor Merz recently pledged a €1 trillion plan for defense and social infrastructure investment and welfare reforms, but he failed to dispel voters' skepticism. In particular, his idea to adjust the pension system so that workers can continue working after the retirement age is seen as likely to lose momentum amid internal coalition discord and opposition pushback.
The local election results drew assessments that AfD is no longer a party confined to the east. As a far-right party expands its support even in industrial cities of western Germany, the country's political class faces mounting pressure to address economic recession and immigration.
Political commentators said, "This election goes beyond a mere regional outcome and reflects internal discontent within the Merz coalition," adding, "AfD's surge is likely to act as a variable shaking the overall balance of German federal politics."