The frenzy for Pop Mart's Labubu dolls from Chinese toymaker Pop Mart, once so explosively popular that people said they "couldn't buy them because there weren't enough," is fading. As speculative demand chasing scarcity ebbed, prices plunged mainly in the secondary (resale) market. Some warn the episode could mirror the collapse of the Cabbage Patch Kids and Beanie Babies in the United States in the 1990s after speculative manias.
The clearest sign that the Labubu craze is cooling is the price. According to Bloomberg on 12th (local time), the average price for a 14-figure set of Pop Mart's newly released "Mini Labubu" on the Chinese resale platform "Qiandao (千岛)" recently stood at 1,594 yuan (about 300,000 won). That is down 24% from the late last month peak, two weeks before launch. It is higher than the official retail price (1,106 yuan, about 220,000 won), but it's a poor showing compared with the days when people said they "couldn't get one" as prices ran into the millions of won.
The Labubu doll is a character created in 2015 by Hong Kong artist Leung Ka Sing, based on Norse mythology. Chinese toy company Pop Mart began selling it in 2019 in a "blind box" format and sparked a global craze. Pop Mart added a special edition with only a 1.39% pull rate and heightened the rarity of each doll to stoke collecting urges. BLACKPINK member Lisa lit the spark, and the craze spread beyond Asia to North America and Europe as Hollywood celebrities like Rihanna and Dua Lipa were seen on social media carrying bags adorned with Labubu dolls. Rare types were transactioned at more than $10,000 (about 13.8 million won) in the secondary market, hundreds of times the list price. At an auction in Beijing, China, in Jun., a one-of-a-kind early Labubu model measuring 131 centimeters sold for $150,000 (about 200 million won).
But the situation has changed recently. After Labubu's success, Pop Mart rolled out new series in quick succession. In particular, with the release of the Labubu 3.0 series in late Jun. and the Mini Labubu series late last month, more than several million units flooded multiple sales channels. Industry experts described it as a "toy version of the tulip bubble (the overheated speculation in 17th century Netherlands)."
On top of that, multiple consumer outlets reported simultaneous quality issues such as asymmetrical arms and legs, uneven head angles, and burst seams. As popularity surged, counterfeits called "Lafufu" also spread. U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) said on 26th last month that it seized 11,134 counterfeit Labubu dolls disguised as cargo originating from Korea at Seattle–Tacoma International Airport, worth $510,000 (about 700 million won). As the scarcity premium vanished and complaints over quality and counterfeits mounted, consumers who had anticipated new Labubu series left in droves.
Financial services company Morningstar said, "Prices in the secondary market for Labubu are falling as large-scale restocks and cooling reduce demand for certain series," adding, "The growing negative response to the quality of new products is also an issue Pop Mart's management must address urgently."
On the 8th of this month, Pop Mart shares on the Hong Kong stock market plunged 8.9% in a day, the steepest drop in about five months. The stock fell despite Pop Mart's fresh inclusion in the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index that day, as concerns over slowing demand weighed on sentiment.
Some analysts say the Labubu craze resembles the "Cabbage Patch Kids" of the 1980s or the "Beanie Babies" frenzy of the 1990s. Like Labubu, those dolls highlighted scarcity through limited releases. The Cabbage Patch Kids made by Coleco in 1982 spurred desire to own by including an "adoption certificate" with each doll. During some Christmas seasons of that era, violence broke out in stores as people fought over the dolls. But as supply caught up and the fad cooled, sales plunged starting in 1986. Coleco ultimately filed for bankruptcy protection in 1988, six years after releasing Cabbage Patch Kids.
In the 1990s, Ty's plush Beanie Babies manufactured scarcity through a high-mix, low-volume strategy. Collectors and speculators bought rare Beanie Babies and resold them in the secondary market at high prices for profit. But as the bubble burst in the 2000s, "Beanie Babies in storage" flooded the resale market and prices collapsed.
As resale premiums fade, manufacturers hunt for new revenue by releasing fresh titles or expanding story worlds. Pop Mart is pushing the "Crybaby" series as the successor to Labubu. Subtitled "It's okay to cry," the series draws attention for its distinctive design with large tears. According to Pop Mart's recent half-year earnings report, Crybaby revenue surged nearly 249% from a year earlier to 1.22 billion yuan (about 230 billion won). Following Labubu and Molly, it has now joined Pop Mart's main product lines.
Emily Bro, Pop Mart's head of IP licensing for the Americas, told Reuters, "The Crybaby subtitle means 'sometimes it's okay to cry,'" adding, "It is very relevant to this moment and clearly a message people relate to." Bro added, "Every IP (intellectual property) has universal themes and stories, and as people learn more about them, they show loyalty to the story lines they are drawn to or interested in."