Since last year, the pace of job growth in the United States has slowed far more than expected, raising concerns about the health of the U.S. economy. As a result, there is speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could move to cut interest rates.
According to a preliminary report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on the 9th (local time), as of March 2025, the annual benchmark revision to nonfarm institutional sector employment data showed a decrease of 911,000 from the initially reported figure. This is the largest downward revision since 2000, and the final figure is scheduled to be released early next year.
Adjusted based on quarterly population survey data, this figure reflects the latest information on business sites newly established or closed during the period, indicating that employment conditions in the United States are deteriorating.
While Tuesday's revision itself does not reflect current conditions, labor market data in recent months show that the job market has slumped. From June to August, new jobs increased by an average of only 29,000 per month, a figure that falls short of the breakeven point needed to keep the unemployment rate steady.
After a weak July jobs report and substantial downward revisions, President Trump dismissed then-BLS Director-General Erica MacEntaffer and nominated EJ Antoni, an economist at the Heritage Foundation, as her successor. However, the August jobs figure was in fact lower than July, and a revision to June reduced employment by about 13,000 jobs, marking the first job decline since December 2020.
The BLS compiles employment statistics each month using two surveys, one of enterprises and one of households. This benchmark revision is limited to the enterprise survey-based "payroll" figures and does not affect the household survey-based unemployment rate.
Each year, the BLS benchmarks March employment figures against the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW). This dataset is based on state unemployment insurance tax records and covers nearly all jobs in the United States.
This release is a preliminary figure as of March 2025, and the final figure will be released with the February employment report next year along with month-by-month revisions. In recent years, initial payroll data have often been tallied higher than the QCEW.