Next year, the health insurance premiums in the United States are expected to rise by the largest margin in 15 years. Some insurers have mentioned President Donald Trump's tariff policy as a background for the increase in premiums, which has sparked controversy.
According to global consulting firm Mercer, the expense that U.S. corporations will incur for health insurance provided to employees is expected to increase by an average of 6.5% in 2026. This is the largest increase since the financial crisis of the 2010s. The nonprofit health organization Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF) has projected that the median premium for health insurance subscribers under the government-subsidized health coverage known as 'Obamacare' (Affordable Care Act) will rise by 18% next year, which is more than double this year's increase rate (7%).
UnitedHealth, recognized as the industry leader, is no exception. The company submitted proposed increases of 2.4% and 2.7% in Maryland and Oregon, respectively, stating that they reflect 'the uncertainty of tariffs under the Trump administration and the expenses of reshoring pharmaceutical manufacturing in the U.S.'
However, UnitedHealth is said to have not officially mentioned tariffs as a risk factor in the materials submitted to federal regulators. The company noted that increased expenses for medical services have been a factor putting pressure on profitability, and it is currently under criminal investigation related to billing practices for Medicare, which targets individuals aged 65 and older. UnitedHealth's stock has fallen 38% this year alone, receiving the worst performance record in the S&P 500.
Households are already suffering from cost-of-living pressures due to high inflation. According to a report published by the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) in July, one-third of U.S. corporations have announced plans to raise product prices, marking the highest rate since March of last year. Additionally, U.S. power suppliers are also pursuing substantial rate hikes, which are expected to heighten inflationary concerns if they proceed with an increase of approximately $29 billion, up 142% compared to the same period last year.
In the political arena, conflicts surrounding the issue of premium rates are intensifying. For instance, Arkansas-based insurer Centene has become a target for politicians after announcing plans to raise premiums by as much as 54% next year. Arkansas Governor Sarah Sanders noted, 'Residents are tired of receiving exorbitantly high bills,' urging the state insurance department to reject the proposed increase.
However, industry experts believe that the trend of rising premiums may strengthen further. The expiration of tax subsidies for ACA enrollees at the end of this year has increased the likelihood of healthier policyholders exiting the market. In such a case, only high-risk enrollees may remain, increasing the financial burden on insurers and creating a vicious cycle leading to another premium increase.
Experts believe that the tariffs from the Trump administration are ultimately being passed on to U.S. households. Matt MacGowan, a policy analyst at KFF, warned, 'There's no evidence that tariffs will directly impact medical costs, but insurers are accounting for the uncertainty as an expense. Ultimately, the cost will be borne by the people.'