Shigeru Ishiba, the Japanese Prime Minister, has decided to step down as the president of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), and the LDP is expected to enter the next presidential election. However, as the LDP has not secured a parliamentary majority, the notion that 'LDP president = Japanese Prime Minister' may not hold true.
According to NHK and Reuters on the 7th, Prime Minister Ishiba held an urgent press conference that day and announced he would resign as LDP president. Ishiba immediately requested that the procedure for selecting a new LDP president begin.
The procedure for electing the LDP president has not yet been determined. There are two main methods of election. First, candidates who receive nominations from 20 affiliated lawmakers will engage in discussions and campaigning, followed by voting by members of the National Diet and general party members, in what is termed a 'full spec method.' In this case, the election period is more than 12 days.
There is also a 'simplified method.' When a president resigns during their term or in instances that require 'urgency,' a voting process will take place among members of both houses and representatives from the 47 prefectures to elect the next president, essentially omitting the general party member voting procedure.
Prime Minister Ishiba assumed the LDP presidency in September of last year through the full spec method. Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga was elected through the simplified method during the 2020 LDP presidential election. However, even under Prime Minister Suga, preliminary elections were held in 44 prefectures based on the argument that party members' voices should be reflected.
Currently, Sanae Takaiuchi, the former Minister of Economic Security, and Shinjiro Koizumi, the Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, are being mentioned as leading candidates for the next LDP president.
In Japan, which has a parliamentary cabinet system, the leader of the majority party becomes the prime minister. While the LDP is currently the ruling party, Reuters explained that neither the House of Councilors nor the House of Representatives holds a majority of seats, meaning the LDP president does not automatically become the prime minister. The LDP effectively lost both the House of Representatives election in October of last year and the House of Councilors election in July of this year.
The election for the next prime minister will first take place in the House of Representatives. Any member affiliated with the House of Representatives can be nominated as a candidate. During this time, not only the LDP president but also leaders of opposition parties have been put forward as prime minister candidates.
The candidate who secures a majority in the first vote of the House of Representatives will become the next prime minister. If there is no majority candidate, a runoff vote will occur between the two candidates with the highest votes. After that, voting will also take place in the House of Councilors. However, members of the House of Councilors do not qualify as prime minister candidates.
If the selections of the House of Representatives and the House of Councilors do not match, the decision of the House of Representatives takes precedence. This provision was applied during the parliamentary prime minister election in 2008.
Reuters predicted that the new prime minister may conduct an early general election to secure national support.