With Kim Jong Un, the Chairperson of North Korea's State Affairs Commission, visiting China for the first time in 6 years and 8 months, assessments suggest that the relationship between North Korea and China has rapidly moved to a path of recovery. This visit is expected to allow North Korea to minimize uncertainties by reducing its dependence on Russia, while focusing on expanding trade with China, which accounts for more than 95% of its economic dependence.
China accorded Kim the treatment of a state guest throughout the schedule, which included his arrival in Beijing at 4 p.m. local time on the 2nd and departure at 10 p.m. on the 4th. The public security authorities strictly controlled traffic around major routes, including Beijing Station and the North Korean Embassy in China, from the day Kim's private train arrived. Many plainclothes police were deployed at key points, and citizens or journalists who lingered in one place were asked to leave and had their identification checked, while reporters were followed or asked to delete photos they took, indicating tight security.
As Kim arrived at Beijing Station by private train, he was welcomed by Cai Qi, the fifth-ranked official and director of the Central Office of the Chinese Communist Party (the equivalent to the Secretary General), and Wang Yi, the Minister of Foreign Affairs. On the day following Kim's visit which coincided with the military parade on the 3rd, and on the afternoon of the 4th prior to the North-China summit, all lanes of the 10-lane road near the meeting venue were completely closed, and even pedestrian traffic on overpasses was blocked. Those who lingered or took photos on the road were approached by public security and military personnel to control the situation.
During the North-China summit, which was the final schedule of Kim's visit to China, there were discussions and a dinner held. A separate banquet was arranged solely for Kim among the leaders of 26 countries gathered on stage. Typically, organizing a separate banquet for the head of a specific country at a multilateral diplomatic event is regarded as the highest form of respect.
At this event, Kim stated, "What hasn't changed is the friendly sentiment with which our delegation has been warmly welcomed by our Chinese comrades," adding, "I deeply felt that, despite changes in the world, the friendly feelings of the peoples of North Korea and China do not change." The two leaders pledged to strengthen cooperation in their discussions, affirming their "unchanging friendly relations." State media, including China Central Television (CCTV) and Xinhua News Agency, reported the meeting of the two leaders unusually in near real-time, even releasing video footage of their statements immediately to foster a friendly atmosphere.
Previously, the relationship between the two countries had cooled as North Korea strengthened its ties with Russia amid North Korean forces participating in the war in Ukraine. China is wary of the solidification of a trilateral framework of North Korea, China, and Russia. Even in last year, which was named the 'Year of North-China Friendship,' the recovery of relations between the two countries did not gain much speed, and in fact, a commemorative 'footprint plaque' in Dalian, China, celebrating a walk by Kim and President Xi was removed, and tens of thousands of North Korean workers were requested to return by Chinese authorities. Even considering the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, the fact that no summits were held for a full 6 years is analyzed as a consequence of North Korea's closeness to Russia.
However, this year, as high-level exchanges and the dispatching of workers between North Korea and China resumed, a trend toward improving relations was detected, and it was during this context that Kim made a sudden visit to Beijing, leading to the first meeting between the two leaders. A diplomatic source in Beijing noted, "China tends to have diplomatic relations led by top-level officials. In past cases, there has often been a situation where, after visits by leaders, relationships improved as if there had never been tension," adding, "This time, through Kim Jong Un's visit to China, the relations will likely improve much more than before."
In the future, cooperation in the trade sector between North Korea and China is expected to strengthen. Previously, North Korea relied on Russia economically following troop deployments for the war in Ukraine, but as the war comes to an end, the likelihood of maintaining the current relationship is low, and North Korea must find a breakthrough by expanding trade with China.
According to data published last month by the Bank of Korea estimating North Korea's economic growth rate for 2024, the scale of North Korea's external trade last year was $2.7 billion (approximately 3.7633 trillion won), a decrease of 2.6% from the previous year ($2.77 billion, approximately 3.8608 trillion won). Notably, imports of fertilizers and grains dropped by 88%, making an expansion of trade with China urgent for stabilizing people's livelihoods. The Institute for National Security Strategy (INSS) stated in a report published on the 2nd that while there has been considerable progress in North-Russia relations, it cannot completely replace North-China relations, indicating that North Korea seeks to rectify the diplomatic imbalance tilted toward Russia.
In fact, during Kim's visit to China, economic officials accompanied him in large numbers instead of military officials. In meetings with President Xi, Kim Duk-hoon, the head of the Party's Economic Department and former Prime Minister, also attended, and China sent officials leading trade and economic sectors. Both countries likely engaged in specific discussions regarding North-China economic cooperation.