Kim Jong Un's visit to China as Chairman of the State Affairs Commission of North Korea has raised expectations for progress in North Korea-China relations after six years. Unusually, North Korea informed the public almost in real-time about Kim's departure, and it has been reported that China will offer special treatment for Kim. Amidst this, attention is focused on whether close ties between North Korea, China, and Russia will strengthen.
North Korean state media reported early on the 2nd that "Chairman Kim's special train crossed the border at dawn," revealing a photo of Kim in his train office with Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui and Kim Sung Nam, head of the International Affairs Department of the Labor Party (presumably). It is unusual for North Korea to disclose news about the supreme leader's overseas visit immediately after departure; in the previous 2023 visit to Russia, it took two days to announce the news.
North Korea's Ministry of Foreign Affairs also noted that it supports the vision of international order proposed by Chinese President Xi Jinping at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit. This vision claims to be an alternative international order against the United States. The ministry stated, "North-China cooperation to uphold international justice and fairness will be further strengthened in the future."
Signs of improvement in North Korea-China relations are also being detected in China. During a press conference related to the military parade on the 28th of last month, the Chinese government announced the guest list, calling Kim second. A diplomatic source in Beijing said, "The order of the guest names has significance. It seems related to the seating arrangement at the military parade podium."
He continued, "There have been aspects where the relationship between China and North Korea has not been good, but there have been signs of improvement recently; this is likely in this context. The relationship should become much better through Chairman Kim's visit to China." Previously, North Korea had friction with China due to military alliances with Russia and personnel dispatch related to the Ukraine war, but it seems progress in relations is being made due to Chairman Kim's visit.
According to information reported by the National Intelligence Service to the National Assembly's Intelligence Committee that day, upon his arrival in Beijing, Chairman Kim is expected to receive special treatment, including protocol and security, equivalent to that of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
◇ Attention to North Korea-China-Russia closeness against the West
In this context, an announcement came out that at the military parade on the morning of the 3rd, Chairman Kim and President Putin would sit next to President Xi, watching the parade together, suggesting that this meeting could serve as a signal for the 'anti-West' coalition of the three countries.
Earlier, President Putin arrived in China on the 31st of last month to attend the SCO summit and held a summit with President Xi in Beijing that day. No leaders from major Western countries will attend this military parade. For Chairman Kim, this visit to China is a debut stage for multilateral diplomacy, and for North Korea, it is also a return to multilateral diplomacy after 60 years.
However, some analysts suggest that the visible actions of North Korea, China, and Russia consolidating publicly may be interpreted as the beginning of a 'new Cold War,' leading China to consciously avoid appearing closely aligned with the three countries. China has been cautious about the three countries linking together in the past.
A source said, "It seems that China will restrain the visible appearance of the three countries coming together," and added, "Even if such attempts exist, it is likely that the three countries will collaborate with other countries like Vietnam and Pakistan." The National Intelligence Service also mentioned during a meeting of the Intelligence Committee that "the likelihood of practical tripartite cooperation among North Korea, China, and Russia occurring immediately is low."