With the end of the Cold War, conscription has disappeared into history, but it is returning to the European continent. This is a result of security concerns reaching a peak as Russia's invasion of Ukraine continues for nearly four years. In recognition of the harsh reality that the 'era of peace' has ended, countries are competing for troop acquisition beyond just military buildup. In Germany, Europe's largest economy and a country particularly sensitive to military expansion, the argument that 'women should also be included in the conscription target' has heated the debate further.
According to German state media Deutsche Welle (DW) on the 1st (local time), the German federal government passed a new military service law amendment on the 27th of last month. According to the amendment, the German government plans to increase the Bundeswehr troop level, currently at 183,000, to 260,000 by the early 2030s and double the reserve corps to 200,000. The core of the amendment is the introduction of an 'opt-in conscription system' modeled after Sweden. The German government has made it mandatory for all males who turn 18 to submit a questionnaire regarding their willingness for military service and physical condition, while participation for women is optional. The military authorities will recommend enlistment based on the data collected through the questionnaires. However, the amendment includes a provision that if the number of applicants falls short of the target or if the security situation worsens, it can be switched to a full conscription system with parliamentary approval.
Chancellor Friedrich Merz officially hinted at the possibility of conscripting women immediately after the bill was passed in a media interview. He said, 'If we cannot reinforce our troops through voluntary enlistment, we must return to mandatory service,' adding, 'The constitution currently prohibits mobilizing women for military service, and we need to address this matter as well.' Realizing this will require an amendment to the German constitution. Article 12a of the German constitution limits military service obligations to males only. To amend the constitution, more than two-thirds approval from the federal parliament is needed. Chancellor Merz also acknowledged that '(conscripting women) would be the third or fourth stage among the enlistment issues,' recognizing it as a long-term task.
Although the amendment has passed, there is still a long way to go before conscription can actually be reinstated. The biggest issue is infrastructure. Since Germany suspended conscription in 2011, most barracks, training instructors, and administrative systems for accepting new recruits have been dismantled. Chancellor Merz even stated, 'We do not have enough barracks or instructors. We must rebuild everything from scratch.' Frank Sauer, a political scientist at the German Armed Forces University, pointed out in an interview with Euronews, 'In theory, the revival of conscription is possible, but currently, there is no system to conscript people, so it would have no practical effect.'
There is also strong opposition from the young people who would fall under the conscription targets. In a YouGov survey targeting Germans aged 16 to 26, 61% opposed mandatory service. In contrast, 67% of those over 60 supported it, revealing a stark generational divide in perceptions. When asked, 'Would you take up arms to defend the country?', only 16% responded, 'Absolutely yes.' Especially negative perceptions about conscripting women have emerged. The German Left Party stated, 'Forcing women to take up arms is regression, not progress,' and pledged to fight against conscription for women.
The business community is concerned about a decrease in the workforce. The Ifo Institute for Economic Research in Germany estimated that conscription could result in economic losses of up to €70 billion (approximately 105 trillion won) annually. Stephan Kampeiter, a director at the Federation of German Industries (BDA), stated, 'If young people enter the labor market late after completing military service, the German economy will not be able to handle it.'
Experts evaluated that the revival of conscription is a facet of the 'militarization wave' spreading across Europe. Boris Pistorius, the German Minister of Defense, stated, 'According to military experts' assessments, Russia will be in a position to attack NATO member countries from 2029.' It is assessed that this sense of crisis is leading to discussions about reintroducing conscription for stable troop supply, beyond just significant increases in defense spending.
In particular, Northern European countries bordering Russia are moving the fastest. Denmark has included women in the conscription target and extended the service period from 4 months to 11 months starting in July this year. Norway has imposed military service obligations on both men and women since 2015, and Sweden has done so since 2018. Approximately 10 countries, including Finland, Greece, Cyprus, and Austria, maintain male conscription like Korea. Recently, in Italy, which is relatively far from the Ukrainian battlefield, the far-right party Lega proposed a bill for six months of mandatory military service. Poland is also reviewing the reintroduction of conscription.