French Prime Minister François Bayrou has thrown down the gauntlet ahead of a parliamentary vote of confidence on the 8th (local time), staking his political future on the outcome. He emphasized that this vote would determine the 'fate of the French nation,' not just that of the Prime Minister or the current government, putting pressure on the opposition. There are predictions that the cabinet led by Bayrou could collapse.
In a joint interview with French broadcasters on the 31st, Prime Minister Bayrou said, 'The issue is not the fate of the Prime Minister or the government, but the fate of France.' He likened the massive government liability situation to 'a ship with a hole in the hull taking on water,' stressing the need for fiscal tightening. This vote of confidence was directly requested by Prime Minister Bayrou, aiming to break through the parliamentary deadlock over the budget bill.
The issue lies in the political landscape of France. The ruling party led by President Emmanuel Macron is in a 'divided government' situation after failing to secure a majority in the National Assembly following last year's early elections. In this context, the Bayrou government is pushing for expenditure cuts amounting to €44 billion (about 66 trillion won) and tax increases. This is an emergency measure to reduce the budget deficit ratio, currently the highest in the Eurozone, from 5.4% this year to 4.6%.
The opposition is strongly resisting, regardless of the political spectrum. The far-right National Union (RN) led by Marine Le Pen and leftist parties, including the Socialist Party, have all declared their intention to vote for a no-confidence motion. Jordan Bardella, RN leader, stated, 'The Bayrou government will fall,' reiterating calls for early elections. Olivier Faure, the leader of the Socialist Party, also remarked that a no-confidence decision would be 'irreversible.' He added that the only thing he wants to hear from Prime Minister Bayrou before their scheduled meeting is the word 'goodbye.'
Prime Minister Bayrou plans to meet with opposition lawmakers before the vote to persuade them to at least abstain from voting. However, he acknowledged, 'I cannot be sure if a compromise is possible.' Regarding the controversial bill to abolish two holidays, he left the door open for negotiations, stating, 'There is room for discussion.'
The political instability has been immediately reflected in the financial markets. The spread between the yields of French 10-year government bonds and German government bonds has exceeded 80 basis points (1 basis point = 0.01 percentage points), recording the highest level since January. This indicates that the cost of borrowing for France has increased as the risk of national bankruptcy rises. Justice Minister Gérald Darmanin appealed for political stability by saying, 'The government and institutional stability must be guaranteed to borrow money at a reasonable cost.'
If the confidence vote fails, the cabinet, including Prime Minister Bayrou, must resign. However, President Macron has declared that he will not resign until the end of his term in 2027, making it unlikely that the political deadlock will be resolved even if the Prime Minister steps down.