The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit, chaired by Chinese President Xi Jinping, will kick off for two days in Tianjin, China, starting on the 31st.
On the 27th (local time), the foreign affairs media outlet Foreign Policy reported that over 20 leaders, including Russian President Vladimir Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, are expected to participate in this meeting. This is the largest gathering since the SCO's establishment in 2001. Notably, U.S. President Donald Trump, who has been at odds with Xi, Putin, and Modi, as well as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, are all expected to attend. It appears that an anti-Trump coalition is coming together.
The SCO is a political, economic, and security cooperation organization launched in 2001 under the leadership of China and Russia. Initially, it was founded on the pretext of jointly addressing the 'three evils' of terrorism, separatism, and extremism. As membership has continued to grow, it has evolved into the largest regional organization in the world. Currently, the combined population of the 10 full member states exceeds 40% of the world's population. Its economic stature is also significant; the total nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of member countries amounts to about $24.6 trillion, which accounts for more than 23% of the world's GDP. This surpasses 80% of the U.S. GDP (about $30.5 trillion). Reuters cited an anonymous Chinese government official who claimed that the SCO is 'an important force in building a new form of international relations.'
This summit is heavily characterized by resistance to the 'America First' policy of the Trump administration. President Trump is waging a trade war with China while imposing strong sanctions on Russia. India is also not free from high tariff pressures. Experts have analyzed that this all-encompassing pressure paradoxically encouraged these countries to unite against the U.S. Eric Olander, editor of the China-Global South Project, noted in the Hindustan Times that Xi will likely use this meeting as an opportunity to showcase what the 'post-America international order' might look like, adding, 'Look at how the BRICS have shaken Trump.'
However, experts have analyzed that although leaders from countries like China, India, and Russia seem united under the anti-Trump banner, each is pursuing different calculations. Xi aims to showcase a Chinese-centered alternative order through this meeting. President Putin, isolated by the West due to the Ukraine war, needs to demonstrate his resilience and break through diplomatically. The most complex position belongs to Indian Prime Minister Modi, who will meet Xi for the first time in seven years. He must thaw relations that have frozen since the bloody border clash in 2020. However, both Russia and China are communist states. Foreign Policy pointed out that 'the Indian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has recently been focused on building relationships with technically advanced democracies,' suggesting that relying on Russia and China could quickly yield counterproductive effects. The Indian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has announced that it will prioritize trade, consolidation, and respect for sovereignty at this meeting. President Erdoğan of Turkey aims to purchase a Russian air defense system while avoiding U.S. sanctions.
In such a situation where countries pursue their own interests, there are criticisms that it's difficult for the SCO to realistically become a counterbalance to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). The complex entanglements of interests among member states complicate concrete policy execution. A notable example is the relationship between India and Pakistan. The two nations experienced severe conflict over the Kashmir region in April this year, nearly leading to nuclear war. Military clashes continued until early May, but the SCO did not intervene. In fact, during the June SCO defense ministers' meeting, a joint statement on terrorism was thwarted due to opposition from India. The fact that the SCO still does not match the U.S. in crisis management capability is also cited as a painful limitation. On the 8th of this month, the dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan, both SCO partner countries, was mediated by the Trump administration, which arranged a meeting between the leaders of the two nations.
This SCO summit is likely to be more about projecting an image of unity against the U.S. rather than achieving substantial policy agreements. Internal factors such as border issues (India-China), long-standing conflicts (India-Pakistan), and power struggles (Russia-China) could lead to it becoming merely a case of 'different dreams in the same bed.' Manoj Kewalramani, a researcher at the Takshashila Institution, stated in the Times of India that 'the precise vision presented by the SCO and its actual implementation plans are quite ambiguous,' adding, 'While it may be apt for narrative projection, its actual ability to solve security issues is severely limited.' Stefan Wolff, a professor at the University of Birmingham, criticized the SCO's so-called 'Shanghai Spirit' as mere empty rhetoric like mutual respect and peaceful coexistence.