Three months after Taiwan officially adopted 'nuclear phase-out' by shutting down its last reactor, it is putting the question of reactor restart to a referendum. This is in response to the rapid increase in electricity demand, the risk of blackouts, and the possibility of a maritime blockade by China, making energy security the top issue.
According to the Financial Times (FT) on the 21st, Taiwan will hold a referendum on the 23rd to decide whether to restart the Maanshan nuclear power plant in the south. This vote is being pushed by the Kuomintang, the main opposition party with 'pro-China' tendencies, which argues that restarting the reactor is essential for the semiconductor industry and national security. In contrast, the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which leans 'pro-U.S. and independent,' is rallying its supporters by calling for a 'no' vote against the reactor restart.
The nuclear phase-out policy led by President Tsai Ing-wen is deeply related to the political roots of the DPP. In the 1980s, concerns over frequent earthquakes and a backlash against the authoritarian government's handling of nuclear waste led to a strong anti-nuclear movement, which gradually evolved into a democratization movement, forming the foundation of the DPP. Following the Fukushima nuclear accident in 2011, nationwide anti-nuclear sentiment intensified, and when the DPP came to power in 2016, the government began a formal decommissioning of reactors. Ultimately, in May, the state-run electric company, Taipower, ceased operations of the last reactor, making Taiwan the third country after Germany and Italy to completely phase out nuclear power.
However, the trust in nuclear phase-out is quickly waning as the transition to renewable energy moves slowly. In the first half of this year, Taiwan's share of renewable energy generation was 13%, significantly below the target of 20%, with liquefied natural gas (LNG) accounting for 46.2% and coal for 35% of the main energy sources. Particularly, with the world's largest foundry, TSMC, consuming 12% of total electricity, the expanding demand for artificial intelligence (AI) is raising concerns of worsening the situation. Taipower has caused frequent blackouts during the process of repairing its outdated power grid, and the government is resorting to raising electricity prices to mitigate the scale of its losses.
As the situation worsens, shifts in public opinion are also being detected in Taiwan. According to the Taiwan Sustainable Energy Research Institute (TAISE), the response supporting nuclear power generation to achieve carbon neutrality rose dramatically from 58.3% last year to 66.1% this year.
Globally, the trend of 'un-phase-out' is continuing. U.S. President Donald Trump declared, 'We will quadruple nuclear power generation capacity within 25 years,' and Germany is also looking for alternatives as it can no longer afford to phase out nuclear power. Japan, likewise, is reactivating some reactors for the first time in 14 years since the Fukushima disaster and is planning new constructions.
External experts also argue that nuclear energy is inevitable. This is due to Taiwan's extreme vulnerability, relying on imported fuels for more than 95% of its energy, especially considering the risk of a maritime blockade by China. Mark Cancian, a senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), emphasized during a recent war simulation that 'energy is the weakest link in Taiwan's resilience' and that 'extending the lifespan of nuclear reactors and reinforcing the power grid are required.' Jensen Huang, the CEO of NVIDIA, also visited Taiwan recently and noted that 'nuclear power is an excellent option.'
Meanwhile, in Taiwan, a proposal will pass if the number of voters in favor exceeds those opposed, and if the number of supporters exceeds one-fourth of all registered voters. The results of the vote will have legal effect for two years, and if nuclear reactor restart is decided, the government must proceed with the resumption process within the deadline.