The Brazilian Supreme Court ordered former President Jair Bolsonaro to clarify his position regarding allegations of fleeing abroad within 48 hours, plunging Brazilian politics into turmoil once again. The Federal Police announced that they secured a draft request for asylum in Argentina from his mobile phone, putting the former president in a precarious position as he faces trial.
According to foreign media such as The Guardian on the 21st (local time), the Brazilian Federal Police stated that they secured documents indicating Bolsonaro's possible asylum in Argentina during a recent search and seizure operation. The documents were drafted in a format addressed to Argentine President Javier Milei, requesting asylum due to political persecution and imminent arrest. Although the date and signature were missing, the police assessed this as evidence that Bolsonaro was actually considering fleeing abroad.
In response, Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes ordered Bolsonaro's team to submit a statement within 48 hours. Justice Moraes noted, "There is evidence showing an attempt to leave the country." With this order mentioning the possibility of Bolsonaro's arrest, the political situation has become even more tense.
Bolsonaro's trial is set to begin early next month and is expected to conclude around the 12th. He has been charged with inciting supporters to protest the election results, which he claims were due to fraudulent voting in the 2022 presidential election loss. If convicted, he could face a maximum sentence of 40 years. He is currently under house arrest for violating a ban on social media (SNS) use.
His legal team explained that "the proposal for asylum in Argentina was suggested only by some close aides, and Bolsonaro has never agreed to it," but the suspicion is not easily dissipating. Experts believe it will be difficult for him to avoid conviction, and the asylum documents could work against him during the psychological proceedings.
This situation erupted shortly after suspicions of overseas lobbying by Bolsonaro's family came to light. The police indicated that Bolsonaro and his son, Congressman Eduardo, attempted to lobby the U.S. conservative camp to pressure the Brazilian Supreme Court. In fact, Eduardo visited the U.S. last February and met with President Donald Trump and his aides. President Trump later criticized, "The trial of Bolsonaro is a political execution," while increasing pressure by imposing a 50% tariff on Brazilian imports.
President Trump even took steps to cancel the U.S. visas of eight judges from the trial, including Justice Moraes, and the family of the Minister of Health. However, this backfired. According to polls, more than 70% of the Brazilian public opposed Trump's intervention, and the approval rating of President Lula actually rose.
Internal fractures are also deepening. Silas Malafaia, an evangelical pastor and key ally of Bolsonaro, has recently been under police investigation, revealing dissatisfaction among his support base. Exchanged messages have shown Bolsonaro's family and aides engaging in heated arguments with each other.
The final ruling is expected next month. Experts predict that "the political landscape in Brazil is likely to shake significantly based on the trial outcome."