As President Lee Jae-myung and U.S. President Donald Trump are set to hold their first summit, American experts have warned that North Korea could carry out significant provocations, including nuclear tests. The analysis suggests that the situation surrounding the U.S.-South Korea joint military exercises and the halt in U.S.-North Korea dialogue has increased the possibility of provocations.

Victor Cha, a Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), noted during a media briefing on the 20th (local time) that 'we cannot rule out the possibility of North Korea taking any action next week.' President Lee is scheduled to visit the U.S. on the 24th for a summit with President Trump, with talks planned at the White House on the 25th. Cha believes North Korea may initiate provocations aimed at this timing.

Victor Cha, a Korea expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), and Ramon Pacheco Pardo, a professor at King's College London, hold a meeting with Korean correspondents at the Korea Cultural Center in Paris, France, on the 18th afternoon (local time). /Courtesy of News1

Victor Cha is a North Korea expert who served as the Director General for Asia at the White House National Security Council (NSC) during the George W. Bush administration. Cha cited three factors. The first is the South Korea-U.S. summit itself, the second is the ongoing South Korea-U.S. 'Ulchi Freedom Shield (UFS)' exercises, and lastly, the complete blockage of diplomatic channels between the U.S. and North Korea. He analyzed that 'this combination of factors is not a good sign based on empirical studies' and warned that it typically leads to significant provocative actions from North Korea. Regarding the level of provocation, he warned that 'it could take the form of missile tests or even nuclear tests.'

Cha pointed out that North Korea is making every effort to secure viable nuclear weapons, suggesting that Russia may be assisting in this endeavor. He added that reports related to the new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) base being constructed near the North Korea-China border are expected to emerge soon.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un inspects field training at major military operation bases in the western region of the country in March 2024, commanding troops to prepare for war with guns in hand. /Courtesy of Chosun DB

Syd Seiler, a senior advisor at the same institute, also noted that 'we must remember that North Korea is currently in a summer training period,' suggesting that there could be military displays such as missile launches or artillery firing demonstrations. However, he clarified that 'it is unlikely to take a lethal or physical form.'

Speculation has arisen regarding the agenda that President Trump may raise at the upcoming South Korea-U.S. summit. Cha predicted that President Trump is likely to focus 'like a laser beam' on trade deficit issues with allies and may demand additional commitments from South Korea to reduce the trade surplus.

There is also an analysis that he will seek South Korea's clear commitments regarding China. Cha stated that 'Defense Department officials around Trump will want a more explicit commitment from South Korea in case of an emergency with China,' implying that there could be demands for assurances on how South Korea would respond if Taiwan were to be invaded by China. However, he added that 'the content of negotiations among departments in the Trump administration and what President Trump actually wants to say could be completely different.'

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