U.S. President Donald Trump is set to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin on the 15th (local time) to discuss ending the Russia-Ukraine war, as both nations continue to engage in a psychological battle over the 'territorial exchange.' President Putin proposed a plan to take the entirety of eastern Ukraine's Donbass in exchange for freezing the remaining occupied territories at the current front lines; however, President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine is strongly opposing this.
Donbass refers to the area encompassing Donetsk and Luhansk, which border Russia and Ukraine, as well as parts of Rostov Oblast. This region is the stronghold of pro-Russian separatist forces, which Russia used as a pretext to invade Ukraine in 2022.
President Trump ultimately stated that territorial issues would not be discussed at the meeting, but he had previously noted multiple times that 'territorial exchange could be part of a peace agreement with Ukraine.' However, President Zelensky has consistently maintained that 'there will be no territorial exchange,' leading to analysis suggesting that the likelihood of Ukraine relinquishing the region is low.
◇Key area of Donbass... if breached, the entire Ukraine will collapse
The primary reason Ukraine must defend Donbass is the military factor. Currently, Ukraine's single road network connecting the north and south forms a defensive line among major cities. If even part of this network were to fall to Russia, the entire defensive line would collapse, significantly increasing the probability of Russian forces advancing throughout Ukraine.
In particular, if Ukraine loses Donbass, it risks handing over defensively constructed facilities worth tens of millions of dollars, strategic railway networks, and various mineral and coal resources to Russia. Kharkiv, located above the industrial region of Donbass, is a military-industrial area, and should Russian forces retake this region, advancing into nearby Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia, and further into central Ukraine would become much easier.
Serhiy Kuzhan, head of the Ukraine Security Cooperation Center, explained that 'if even one of the cities forming the defensive line is abandoned, it would effectively mean the entire defensive line of Ukraine has collapsed.'
◇Human rights violations and anti-compromise public sentiment cannot be overlooked
The issue of war refugees cannot be ignored. If Russian occupation expands, at least hundreds of thousands of civilians may be forced to evacuate or remain under Russian control, leading to the expectation of further widespread human rights abuses during this process. Currently, over 200,000 civilians reside in the Donbass control area, with 847 out of 1,298 residences confirmed to be under Russian occupation. According to human rights organizations such as the United Nations (UN), extreme human rights violations, including detention and torture, are already taking place in occupied areas.
Social and cultural factors, such as politics and public opinion, also make territorial exchange virtually impossible. According to polls, more than three-quarters of Ukrainians oppose 'territorial concessions for peace,' and the rate of opposition within the military is estimated to be even higher. In this situation, accepting territorial exchange would inevitably cause significant internal upheaval. President Zelensky also asserted, 'The president does not have the authority to exchange territory,' maintaining a consistent stance that meets the demands of the public despite declining approval ratings.
Historian Yaroslav Hrytsak stated, 'Ukrainians regard the territory of Donbass as part of their identity,' and predicted that 'territorial exchange would be impossible without concessions from the Russian military, such as withdrawing from southern Ukraine.'