Beef prices in the United States have reached an all-time high, and prices are expected to continue to rise steadily for the time being. This is due to a decrease in the number of cattle being raised, resulting in a lower total supply, and high tariffs in the U.S. that are also driving up import prices.
Recently, beef retail prices in the United States have remained at high levels. According to the July U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) announced on the 12th (local time), ground beef has increased by 11.5% compared to the same period last year, while beef steak has risen by 12.4%. The June CPI also showed both retail prices surging by over 10% year-over-year.
On this day, Bloomberg News reported that the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) cited a monthly report indicating a high likelihood of further increases in beef prices in the U.S. market. According to the report, the total supply of beef in the United States is projected to decline by 2.5% year-over-year to 31.1 billion pounds (about 14.1 billion kilograms) in 2026, which would be the lowest level since 2019.
The reduction in beef supply in the United States is interpreted as a result of prolonged drought, rising interest rates, and increased expenses related to feed and raising costs. As cattle farmers speed up slaughter rates to alleviate the burden of feed costs, the number of cattle being raised in the U.S. has dropped to an all-time low. According to the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF), as of January 1 this year, the number of cattle and calves in the United States has decreased by 8% compared to 2019, marking the lowest level in 74 years.
Beef prices are expected to have potential for further increases in the future. Farmers are predicted to withhold breeding heifers instead of slaughtering them to increase herd numbers, leading to a forecast of even lower supply in the short term.
According to the USDA, beef production in the U.S. is expected to decrease by 1.8% year-over-year to 25.5 billion pounds in 2026, marking the lowest level since 2016.
Moreover, the high tariffs imposed on imported beef in the U.S. are also reducing the possibility of imported beef alleviating price increases. Previously, U.S. President Donald Trump imposed a 50% tariff on Brazil, the world's largest beef exporter, significantly raising the import price of beef in the United States. Brazilian exporters have already halted slaughtering for shipments to the U.S.
Benjamin Toier, an analyst at Barclay's, noted, "Beef prices in the U.S. market are unlikely to recover to previous significant levels within 3 to 4 years" and added, "Consumers are likely to turn to cheaper products such as pork and chicken."