Experts on the Korean Peninsula in the United States predicted that 'strategic flexibility' and alliance modernization will be key topics at the Korea-U.S. summit taking place on the 25th in Washington, D.C., and that this meeting could become a significant turning point for the Korea-U.S. alliance. Some experts pointed out that sensitive issues such as the size of U.S. troops in Korea should be left to practical discussions, while the leaders should focus on reaffirming the importance of the alliance, the U.S. commitment to defense against North Korea, and cooperation on North Korean policies.
Experts advised that since President Lee Jae-myung will meet with President Donald Trump for the first time, it is important to establish a system for ongoing discussions on current issues while also fostering their personal rapport.
Patrick Cronin, chairman of the Asia-Pacific Security program at the Hudson Institute, predicted that President Trump will emphasize Korean investments in the fields of North Korea, semiconductors, and energy, along with U.S.-Korea economic cooperation. However, he advised that issues such as burden sharing of alliance expenses and the deployment of U.S. forces in Korea could become points of contention, suggesting that communication should occur at a high level while details should be discussed at the working level. He emphasized that President Lee should refrain from excessive demands when negotiating with the unpredictable President Trump and should resolve disagreements through practical dialogue.
Andrew Yeo, a Brookings Institution scholar on Korea, predicted that at this summit, President Trump will highlight his achievements while focusing on defense and security issues. Strategic flexibility, alliance modernization, and maintaining deterrence against North Korea will be major discussion points, and there may be disagreements in the process of expanding the role of U.S. troops in Korea and setting conditions. Professor Yeo stated that President Lee must induce North Korea to resume diplomacy and secure a commitment to closely consult with Korea before any dialogue.
Tom Lamigie, an economic policy analyst at the Korea-U.S. Economic Institute, anticipated that President Trump will emphasize Korean investment commitments as follow-ups to the trade agreement and attempt serious discussions on defense strategies and cost-sharing issues. Sensitive issues, such as those pertaining to agriculture, have yet to be agreed upon, and this could provide an opportunity to clarify positions on digital trade and areas of disagreement. There is also a high likelihood that the negotiation will bundle Korea-U.S. trade and security while seeking to share the burdens of the alliance.
Robert Lattes, former U.S. ambassador to South Korea, assessed that this summit could represent a significant turning point for the alliance, depending on the posture of both parties, particularly President Trump. He advised that President Lee and his advisors must prepare for all possibilities, as President Trump might alter the flow of conversation unexpectedly. Former Ambassador Lattes noted that while President Trump is likely to emphasize trade and investment successes and push for an expansion of security contributions and strategic flexibility, it remains unclear how aggressively he will pursue these issues due to the linkages with the U.S.-China summit.
Kim Do-yeon, a senior researcher at the Center for a New American Security, emphasized that discussions around strategic flexibility for U.S. troops in Korea and alliance modernization are inevitable as the U.S. regards China as 'an advancing threat.' He stated that the U.S. wants its troops in Korea to focus on deterring North Korea while also utilizing some forces for deterring China, and that the deployment of new weapons systems and troop adjustments are anticipated. He added that capability is more important than the size of U.S. forces in Korea and that Korea must engage in negotiations to maintain substantial deterrence.
Meanwhile, Researcher Kim Do-yeon advised that rather than presenting too many demands at once during the summit, it would be effective to focus on core issues and leave other matters to practical negotiations. He also stated that the existing 'Washington Declaration' and the implementation and concretization of the Korea-U.S.-Japan summit agreement should be the targets.
Scott Snyder, director of the Korea-U.S. Economic Institute, expressed hope that through alliance modernization, they would address threats posed by the evolving security environment, and confirmed expectations for an increase in defense expenditures and reaffirmation of strategic flexibility from both nations. He also predicted that there would be mutual understanding regarding engagement with North Korea and the maintenance of deterrence. However, he assessed that deep discussions on trade issues during the summit would be difficult until specific measures to implement the framework agreement are discussed.