The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has revised its oil demand forecast for next year upward, reflecting expectations for global economic recovery.
According to the Wall Street Journal on the 12th (local time), OPEC projected that global oil demand will increase by 1.38 million barrels per day in 2026. This is an upward revision from the previous forecast of 1.28 million barrels. The demand forecast for this year remains at 1.29 million barrels per day.
OPEC analyzed that U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff policy could heighten trade uncertainty and inflationary pressure. However, it expected that fiscal stimulus and accommodative currency policies, such as interest rate cuts, would partially offset negative impacts. As a result, it raised the outlook for this year's global economic growth rate from 2.9% to 3% and maintained the forecast for next year at 3.1%. The United States is expected to grow by 1.8% this year and 2.1% next year, while the Eurozone is projected to grow by 1.2% this year and next year.
Recently, international oil prices have experienced limited fluctuations amid the economic impact of tariff policies, seasonal demand weakness, and concerns about oversupply. The market is paying attention to the scheduled meeting between President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin on the 15th, as a peace agreement in Ukraine could lead to the easing of sanctions against Russia and an increase in oil supply.
Earlier this month, the eight major members of OPEC+ (Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman) decided to increase oil production by 547,000 barrels per day starting in September. This is a decision to end the voluntary production cuts initially set to last until September of next year, one year earlier than planned. While there are forecasts that seasonal demand may absorb the increase in supply, concerns are raised that additional volumes could flood a market already facing severe oversupply.
The supply from non-OPEC+ oil-producing countries is also set to increase. Due to production increases in the United States, Canada, Brazil, and Argentina, an increase of 810,000 barrels per day is expected this year, with 630,000 barrels per day forecasted for next year.