Military powers are increasingly conducting joint exercises in the East Sea and South China Sea at similar times, raising military tensions in East Asia. China and Russia showcased their military strength in the East Sea on the 3rd, while India and the Philippines demonstrated theirs in the South China Sea on the 4th. Experts analyzed that the two sides, centered around the United States and China, are engaging in proxy battles for supremacy in East Asia's maritime region.
According to Reuters on the 5th, the Russian Pacific Fleet and the Chinese Navy began the 'Maritime Interaction-2025' joint exercise in the East Sea on the 3rd. The exercise commenced shortly after U.S. President Donald Trump directed that two U.S. nuclear submarines be stationed near the Russian border. However, the exercise itself was planned before the deployment of the submarines. The recent U.S.-Russia tensions over the conclusion of the Ukraine war and the U.S.-China tensions over Taiwan have intensified regional anxieties. The two countries showcased military cooperation through anti-submarine warfare, joint artillery fire, and air defense drills during this exercise.
The naval forces of the Philippines and India began their first joint maritime activity in the Philippine exclusive economic zone (EEZ) in the South China Sea on the 4th. This maritime exercise, which will last for five days, coincided with Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos's state visit to India. Recently, the Philippines has been steadily increasing joint drills with countries like the United States, Japan, and Australia to counter China's pressure in the ongoing South China Sea territorial dispute.
Each participating country in the exercises revealed different calculations. China openly expressed its ambition to constitute the South China Sea as an inland sea. The Chinese Ministry of National Defense defined the Philippines as a "troublemaker" and criticized it for colluding with external forces to undermine regional stability. Zhang Xiaogang, spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of National Defense, warned during the exercise that "if the Philippines provokes, we will take resolute countermeasures." EuroNews reported that China demonstrated solidarity with Russia to challenge U.S. unilateral hegemony and asserted its commitment not to back down on core interests such as the Taiwan issue.
Russia showcased its 'unlimited cooperation' with China while facing Western sanctions due to the Ukraine war, signaling its resilience. This strategy is meant to divert U.S. attention from Europe and the Middle East to Asia to alleviate pressure on the Ukraine front while maintaining military influence in the Pacific.
In a context of ongoing conflict over land border issues with China, India allied with the Philippines to contain China at sea. Aligning with the Act East policy of the Modi government, India is expanding its influence in Southeast Asia. There is also a sentiment that aims to achieve practical objectives, such as selling weapons like the BrahMos supersonic missile to the Philippines after the exercises. Chinese state media Global Times assessed that "India's true motive is weapon sales," evaluating that "India's support is transactional."
The Philippines is strategizing to secure its security by strengthening alliances with "like-minded nations" against China's aggressive actions. Romeo Brawner, Chairman of the Philippine Armed Forces, noted that "Chinese vessels followed us, but it was expected," stating the exercise concluded successfully. Some views suggest it is an attempt to establish a multilateral cooperation system with India and Japan, moving away from a traditional security framework that relied solely on the United States.
Major foreign media and experts expressed concerns that while these joint exercises are unlikely to lead to immediate military conflicts, they clearly delineate the confrontational dynamics between the camps and increase the risk of accidental clashes. Newsweek quoted Colin Ko, a senior researcher at the Singapore Rajaratnam School of International Studies, analyzing that "India's public support for the Philippines is a clear signal."
On the other hand, Chinese military expert Song Zhongping claimed that "India's participation in the exercises is more symbolic than substantive," asserting that "each partner only pursues its own interests and provides no real help to the Philippines." They generally agreed with the assessment that 'the East Asian sea has become a battleground for great powers, exacerbating regional instability.'
Some experts pointed out that with nuclear weapons being mentioned again in East Asia, it contradicts the Trump administration's diplomatic policy that superficially advocates peace. It is analyzed that President Trump's comments on the deployment of nuclear submarines have provoked Russia and provided a justification for the China-Russia joint exercises. Retired Admiral Robert Murrett told Newsweek that "changes in nuclear posture must be carefully calibrated and should act as deterrents, not as harbingers of increased tension."