U.S. President Donald Trump struck simultaneously at key countries in the emerging economies group, BRICS. On the 30th (local time), President Trump criticized India for its "world's highest tariffs" and "pro-Russia actions," announcing a 25% tariff and additional penalties. He signed an executive order imposing an additional 40% tariff on Brazilian imports, citing that "politically persecuting former President Jair Bolsonaro threatens U.S. security." This action starkly contrasts with the application of tariffs of 15-20% on allied countries like Japan and the European Union.
The White House explained that the order imposing a 40% tariff on Brazil is "in accordance with the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA)." When adding the 40% additional tariff to the basic reciprocal tariff of 10% that the Trump administration applied to most countries, Brazil faces a total tariff of 50%. The White House further stated, "This is a response to the unusual measures of the Brazilian government that harm U.S. corporations and the freedom of expression of Americans, as well as U.S. foreign policy and economy." Especially, the White House specifically named Alexandre de Moraes, a Brazilian Supreme Court Justice overseeing the trial of former President Jair Bolsonaro for plotting a coup. The White House criticized, "Justice Moraes abused judicial power to target political opponents and forced U.S. social media companies to censor legally protected expressions under the First Amendment of the U.S. Constitution."
The White House used "dismantling democracy" as a justification, but in diplomatic circles, the prevailing interpretation is that this is a "political retaliation" against Brazil's recent closer ties with China and Russia, challenging dollar hegemony and strengthening its independent course.
The assault on India, once called a "friend," was unusually intense. President Trump criticized on social media platform Truth Social, "India is our friend, but their tariffs are the highest in the world and they have the most vicious non-monetary trade barriers," formalizing a 25% tariff. He announced that he would impose separate penalties, citing India's closer relationship with Russia compared to before. This suggests that the prolonged trade negotiations between the two countries, which showed "fantastic progress" for several months, ultimately collapsed. India proposed negotiating terms such as reducing tariffs on U.S.-made Harley-Davidson motorcycles, but it is reported that they failed to coordinate with the U.S. demands for opening agricultural and dairy markets.
The proposed penalties targeting India are interpreted as a strong signal that the U.S. might actively leverage "secondary sanctions" that sanction third-country corporations that deal with Russia. Russia currently accounts for about 35% of India's total crude oil supply as its largest supplier. Kevin Hassett, the Director General of the White House National Economic Council, noted, "The 25% tariff will make India reconsider their practices," revealing the pressure intention.
If this measure comes to fruition, it would severely impact not only India but also China, the largest purchaser of Russian fossil fuels. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned, "Anyone purchasing sanctioned Russian crude oil needs to prepare," including China not just India.
President Trump recently achieved satisfactory results in negotiations with Japan and the European Union. The day before, President Trump mentioned after a summit with the EU, "I received a call from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. The meeting with China went very well," adding, "I will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping by the end of this year." Experts analyze that this strategy to consolidate alliances and subsequently increase pressure on BRICS countries is motivated by a calculation to gain a favorable position ahead of negotiations with China. CNN reported quoting White House officials that "President Trump is not interested in partial compromises" and that he "desires the complete removal of barriers whenever possible."
Brazil claims that the U.S. measures are political and is considering countermeasures such as filing a complaint with the World Trade Organization (WTO). India, being the largest export market for the U.S., is faced with inevitable economic impacts. The Federation of Indian Export Organizations (FIEO) expressed concern, stating, "In particular, we will lose competitiveness compared to competitor countries like Vietnam in sectors such as textiles, footwear, and furniture."
Some interpret that President Trump is using high tariffs as geopolitical pressure against countries that do not participate in the "America First" order, beyond merely resolving trade deficits. CNBC noted, "If the price competitiveness of Brazilian and Indian products weakens in the U.S. market, Vietnam or Mexico could immediately benefit," adding that "in the long run, if pressure on BRICS countries intensifies, it could accelerate the establishment of an alternative regional trade settlement system to replace the dollar, thereby creating fractures in the U.S.-centric economic order."