U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer stated on the 29th (local time) that if Israel fails to meet certain conditions, he will formally recognize Palestine as an independent state at the upcoming United Nations (UN) General Assembly in September. This follows just a week after France, the first among the Group of Seven (G7) leaders, indicated plans to recognize the Palestinian state, marking the U.K., a key U.S. ally, also moving toward conditional recognition. Experts interpret this as international pressure on Israel reaching its peak, revealing fractures among Western allies over solutions in the Middle East.
After presiding over an emergency Cabinet meeting, Starmer announced, "Unless the Israeli government takes substantial measures to end the horrific situation in Gaza, agrees to a ceasefire, and revives the possibility of a two-state solution, the U.K. will recognize Palestine as a state at the UN General Assembly in September." The three primary conditions set by the U.K. government for Israel are an immediate and sustained ceasefire agreement, full permission for UN humanitarian activities, and a commitment to halt the annexation of the West Bank.
Currently, among the 193 UN member states, around 140, including Russia, China, and Spain, recognize Palestine as a state. However, major Western countries such as the U.S., U.K., and Germany maintain that while they support the 'two-state solution' for peaceful coexistence between Israel and Palestine, they insist that negotiations with Israel must occur before recognizing Palestine as a state. This announcement from the U.K. is viewed as an unusual policy shift from a long-standing position.
The impact of this declaration was amplified by the timing, as it came shortly after U.S. President Donald Trump met with Starmer in Scotland. According to reports, Starmer also explained his peace plan for Gaza to President Trump. Analysts note that this decision suggests a potential shift from mere diplomatic rhetoric to concrete actions.
The backdrop for the U.K.'s strong stance includes a combination of international criticism regarding humanitarian atrocities in Gaza and domestic political pressure. According to the Gaza Health Ministry, which operates under the Palestinian Authority, over 60,000 people have died due to the ongoing war lasting more than 21 months, with nearly half of the casualties being women and children. International organizations such as the UN have warned that "Gaza is already in a state of famine."
The situation for journalists is also dire. The International Federation of Journalists (IFJ) and the Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ) reported that over 200 journalists have been killed as a result of this war, a number that surpasses the total journalist casualties from major conflicts such as World War II and the Vietnam War. With this suffering becoming known, political pressure has intensified in the U.K., where over 250 members of the Labor Party, to which Starmer belongs, have called for the recognition of a Palestinian state.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu immediately reacted against the U.K. announcement. The Israeli Foreign Ministry issued a statement condemning the U.K.'s position change as "compensation to the terrorist organization Hamas," and an act that undermines efforts for hostage release. This response is practically identical to reactions regarding the French announcement.
In contrast, the Palestinian Authority welcomed the announcement, calling it "a measure to correct historical injustice," according to the Associated Press.
President Trump responded to Starmer's decision by saying, "He can have an opinion," while also making it clear that "the U.S. is not in that camp." Political media outlet Politico evaluated this as a statement that formally acknowledges the distinct differences in positioning between Atlantic allies over the Israeli-Palestinian issue.
Experts predict that the pressure on Israel led by France and the U.K. will likely bring significant changes to the future international political landscape. As these two permanent members of the UN Security Council speak in unison, the likelihood of Israel facing deeper diplomatic isolation has increased. There are analyses suggesting this may be the last opportunity to revive discussions on the nearly extinct 'two-state solution,' while others worry it could provoke Israel's hardline responses, escalating regional tensions.
In the long term, the fractures among Western allies are expected to have significant ramifications for the global economy and the competition for technological hegemony. If the U.S. and Europe continue to diverge on Middle Eastern issues, it could lead to problems in Israel's advanced defense and cybersecurity technology collaborations. Furthermore, there are geopolitical theories suggesting that Western divisions may provide new opportunities for China and Russia, which seek to increase their influence in the Middle East.
The Royal Institute of International Affairs, Chatham House, issued a report on the same day, stating, "This decision (to recognize a Palestinian state) is a clear expression of the U.K.'s position aimed at the entire Middle East, including the U.S., Israel, and Palestine." It added, "If a viable alternative to a Palestinian state is not created, the result will be endless conflict, which will undermine Israel's security, lose support from the international community, and darken the overall stability and future of the Middle East."