The Iranian government has formalized plans to transfer the capital from Tehran to the southern Makran coast. Chronic water shortages have been compounded by energy shortages, and recently, security anxieties have escalated due to Israeli airstrikes, prompting the government to revisit a long-standing topic. The Iranian government states that this is a decision to overcome a national crisis. However, there is also significant criticism regarding the astronomical transfer expense and its feasibility.
According to the state-run IRNA news agency and the Jerusalem Post, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stated on the 24th (local time) that they are "seriously considering the transfer of the capital." He mentioned that "there is really no water left in Tehran," directly referencing the crisis.
As the president noted, the current crisis faced by Tehran has escalated to a disaster level that goes beyond mere drought. President Pezeshkian warned in a cabinet meeting that "in the worst case, 15 million residents may have to leave the city immediately" and added that "if emergency measures are not taken right now, we will face a situation where no solutions can be found in the future."
The state-run IRNA news agency reported that the water levels in Iran's four major dams supplying drinking water have sharply decreased by 87%. Additionally, some regions have been hit by deadly heat waves with temperatures exceeding 50°C. As the situation became urgent, the Iranian Minister of Energy departed for Turkmenistan to negotiate water imports. Last week, the Iranian government declared a public holiday, closing all public institutions and schools in Tehran Province due to severe water shortages and power supply issues.
Chronic disaster risks and recently heightened security fears have also pushed the Iranian government to make decisions. Tehran is located in a highland basin at an elevation of 1,500 meters. It sits on major fault lines, making it geographically vulnerable to earthquakes, much like Japan or California. Recently, the ongoing drought has led to reckless groundwater development, causing the ground to sink by 25 cm each year.
The Israeli airstrikes last month poured fuel on the fire. Tehran's skies were helplessly pierced by the Israeli Air Force, leading to the reality of the "inability to defend the capital." The northeastern part of Tehran, where government officials and military bureaucrats primarily reside, became a complete wreck due to the Israeli bombings. According to Al Jazeera, the simultaneous takedown of high-ranking military and nuclear officials sparked a widespread belief within the Iranian regime that "the capital is no longer a safe zone."
Contrary to its external image as an ancient capital dating back to the Persian era, Tehran has been designated as a relatively "young capital" since it was established in 1788 during the Qajar dynasty. In contrast, neighboring Baghdad, Iraq, was designated as the capital in 762 A.D. and has served in that capacity for 1,263 years. For the Iranian government, the psychological burden of a transfer is relatively lesser. This is why proposals for the transfer of the Iranian capital have periodically emerged since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. In 2009, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei directly proposed a transfer. In 2014, the parliament passed a bill mandating a feasibility study for the capital transfer. However, discussions have stalled since the pandemic in 2020 due to significant expense issues.
The Pezeshkian administration has pointed to southern Makran as the next capital. The current capital, Tehran, is situated in a northern inland highland area near the Caspian Sea. Geographically, its diplomatic and economic exchanges are primarily limited to relatively small economies like Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan. In contrast, Makran is a gateway city directly bordering the Oman Sea and the Indian Ocean. Establishing the capital here could facilitate active exchanges with resource-rich Gulf nations such as Oman and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) across the Hormuz Strait. It also shares a border with Pakistan, providing a land trade route to South Asia.
Pezeshkian stated, "Makran is a strategically significant region where everything is golden," adding that he plans to develop Makran into a hub of the sea-based economy to enhance trade capabilities and reduce the overcrowding burden on Tehran. Reports indicate that two committees have already been formed to develop the maritime economy following the transfer.
Experts have identified the astronomical expense as the greatest obstacle to the capital transfer. The costs required for the transfer are estimated to be between $77 billion and $100 billion (approximately 106 trillion to 138 trillion won). The Iranian government is struggling with a massive fiscal deficit inherited from the previous administration. In fact, it has been dipping into the National Development Fund to conduct regular government operations. In this context, criticisms arise about how such astronomical transfer expenses can be managed.
There are also growing criticisms that the regime has misprioritized its agenda. Instead of adequately building essential social overhead capital for its citizens, the Iranian government has wasted public funds supporting supposed "troublemakers in the Middle East," such as the Lebanese Hezbollah, the Syrian Assad regime, the Yemeni Houthi rebels, and Hamas in Gaza. Furthermore, despite international sanctions, it has poured substantial funds into nuclear power plant construction and uranium enrichment as part of its nuclear program.
While Iran expends its national power on unnecessary pursuits, Israel has focused its investments in advanced technologies, such as seawater desalination, to overcome water scarcity in its harsher natural environment. As a result, Israel now even exports surplus water resources to neighboring countries. This highlights that the crisis facing Iran is not simply a natural disaster but a human disaster resulting from the regime's poor choices or policy failures.
Former Tehran mayor Gholam-Hossein Karbaschi stated in an interview with the UK-based anti-Iran media Iran International that "the authoritarian centralization of decision-making concentrated in Tehran is the essence of the problem," and remarked that "the pervasive infrastructure collapse across Iranian society and the accompanying policy impotence have been revealed once again."