The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which has been Japan's long-ruling party, recently faced defeat in the House of Councilors election, drawing attention to the background of this loss. This election is analyzed as a signal of 'generational change' created by the anger of the youth generation and distrust of established political powers, going beyond a mere struggle between parties.
The LDP has led Japanese politics for most of its history since the conservative merger in 1955. Therefore, the LDP's defeat can be interpreted as a crack in the de facto single-party dominance system that has been in place for nearly 70 years.
In this election, the LDP and its coalition partner Komeito failed to secure a majority in the House of Councilors, finishing with only 47 seats. Including seats that were not up for election, the total number of House of Councilors seats secured by both parties is 122, falling short of a majority (125 seats). In contrast, the newly emerging right-wing party Sanseito, which campaigned on 'Japan First', saw a dramatic increase from 1 seat to 14 seats, becoming the third opposition party.
The election results are interpreted not merely as a regime change resulting from the LDP's defeat, but rather as a signal of political generational change. Indeed, according to an exit poll by Kyodo News, nearly half of the voters under 40 cast their ballots for the new party. This contrasts with older voters over 60, who chose established parties such as the LDP and the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP). The youth perceive not only the LDP but also the largest opposition party, the CDP, as established powers and have turned away from them.
Political critics note that "this election was a declaration of political distrust by the youth through their votes." The simple yet intuitive slogans advocated by the newly risen parties, such as tax cuts, immigration restrictions, stabilizing food prices, and eliminating political privileges, resonated deeply with dissatisfied young voters.
Tobias Harris, founder of the political consulting corporation Japan Forward, said in an interview with the Financial Times that "the LDP has lost its core base by trying to encompass both rural and urban constituents, and older and younger generations," adding that "this election could be a structural turning point for Japanese politics."
The wave created by the newly established party Sanseito is particularly noteworthy. This party was founded in 2020 through a YouTube channel and rapidly spread its online support base with a strong message that combined vaccine conspiracy theories, anti-globalism, and anti-immigration sentiments during the COVID-19 pandemic. Kamiya Sohei, the founder of Sanseito, is a former LDP member who emphasized 'restoring Japanese pride' by highlighting his military background.
His campaign focused on key pledges such as strengthening regulations on foreigners, limiting the number of foreign workers, and tightening the requirements for acquiring citizenship, with the provocative message that "the more foreigners there are, the harder life becomes for Japanese." Thousands of supporters gathered at campaign events, and the number of YouTube channel subscribers exceeded 460,000.
This trend is viewed as a 'Japanese version of populism' similar to former U.S. President Donald Trump's 'America First'. CNN analyzed that "Sanseito is a right-wing anti-establishment party similar to Alternative for Germany (AfD), Reform UK, and others."
Inside the LDP, there is a mood of shock due to the wavering public sentiment. The future situation is also not favorable for the LDP. Starting August 1, the U.S. is set to impose a 25% tariff on Japanese products, and negotiations with the Trump administration regarding trade have been stagnant. Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru has stated that he intends to resolve issues through dialogue, but there has been no noticeable progress to date. It is also analyzed that such economic uncertainties have contributed to the decrease in popularity of the Ishiba Cabinet.
Immediately after the election defeat, Ishiba acknowledged the situation as 'serious,' yet he maintains his position to stay in office. However, voices within the party are growing that "Ishiba must be removed," and former Minister of Economic Security Takaiichi Sanae has officially declared her challenge for the premiership.
However, the issue is that even if the LDP replaces Ishiba, the fundamental problems within Japanese politics will not be resolved. A veteran Japanese lawmaker expressed concern that "if we change the current leadership now, we could see the chaos of prime ministers changing every few months, as was the case in the late 2000s."