Shigeru Ishiba, the Japanese prime minister leading the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its coalition partner, the Gong Myoung party, suffered a defeat in the House of Councilors election held on the 20th, failing to secure a majority of seats. This follows last year's defeat in the House of Representatives election, marking consecutive losses. Consequently, Japanese politics is facing a 'neji-re Diet' situation for the first time since the founding of the LDP in 1955. This term refers to a phenomenon in which control over the House of Representatives and the House of Councilors is divided between the ruling and opposition parties, leading to a deadlock.
Prime Minister Ishiba dismissed calls for his resignation and expressed his intention to maintain his position. However, with growing opposition within the party and attacks from the opposition, it seems inevitable that he will lose the ability to govern.
At a press conference held at the LDP headquarters on the afternoon of the 21st, Prime Minister Ishiba said, "I received an extremely harsh judgment from the public in this election, and I feel the utmost regret. I apologize."
However, Prime Minister Ishiba stated that he has not set a deadline for how long he will remain in office, implying he will continue as prime minister regardless of the results.
Kyodo News cited experts on the 21st, noting that the ruling party's poor performance in this election was a predictable outcome.
Prior to the election, the ruling LDP and the coalition partner Gong Myoung party failed to manage soaring prices. The average price of a bowl of ramen, symbolizing food for the Japanese working class, exceeded 1,000 yen (approximately 9,400 won), a psychological resistance threshold this year. Additionally, rice prices surged dramatically, and there was a supply shortage crisis. The ruling party belatedly proposed economic measures, such as a cash payment of 20,000 yen, but faced criticism that these were not fundamental solutions.
Unending political funding scandals have solidified the image of the 'corrupt LDP.' Prime Minister Ishiba promised reforms within the party after the election, but just before the election, cabinet approval ratings had plummeted to 25.4%, a level considered unsustainable typically below 30%. Notably, as negotiations over tariffs with the Trump administration faced challenges prior to the election, economic anxiety increased, contributing to the major defeat.
The LDP was also caught off guard by the unexpected surge of the ultra-right party, the Sankei Party, which advocated for Japanese nationalism. The party, which previously held only 2 seats, secured 14 seats in this election, now emerging as a significant force capable of submitting legislation in the Diet. They campaigned on promises to restrict foreign real estate purchases and halt support for foreign living assistance, tapping into dissatisfaction among conservative voters in Japan. This was a decisive factor in stealing the traditional LDP support base.
Masahiro Iwasaki, a political science professor at Nihon University, told Kyodo News during an interview, "Japan seems likely to fall into political chaos, which has not been seen in years, as populism rises and political polarization becomes pronounced."
Despite the election defeat, Prime Minister Ishiba made it clear that he intends to continue his duties, stating, "We must be aware of our responsibility to the country." However, criticism is already emerging within the party regarding accountability.
Former Prime Minister Taro Aso, who leads the only faction within the LDP, reportedly expressed to those around him that he cannot accept the continuation of the prime ministership. An LDP official told Yomiuri Shimbun, "If there is a third consecutive defeat (in the House of Representatives, Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly, and House of Councilors elections), the prime minister will have to resign and restart."
In a parliamentary system, cooperation with the opposition is essential for stable governance. However, this is not an easy task for the LDP. As soon as the outline of the House of Councilors election emerged, key opposition party leaders, including the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party, the Democratic Party for the People, and the Japan Innovation Party, drew the line on the possibility of forming a coalition government with the LDP.
Kyodo News quoted political science professor Yu Uchiama of the University of Tokyo, stating, "It's more likely that rather than expanding the coalition government, we will see a scenario where parties align and disband based on individual policies."
The New York Times (NYT) expressed concern that if Prime Minister Ishiba resigns, Japan could experience 'political paralysis' with major issues such as trade negotiations with the Trump administration looming. There is a perception that the so-called lame duck effect, where one must consider the opposition to pass even a single bill or budget, has practically begun.
Potential successors to the prime minister position include Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, who gained popularity after the rice crisis, former Minister of Economic Security Sanae Takaichi with conservative leanings, and former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida.
However, Japanese experts predict that the immediate impact of this election result on Japan-Korea relations will be minimal, due to the necessity for diplomatic and economic cooperation between both countries regarding tariffs and North Korea issues.
However, it seems challenging to resume shuttle diplomacy between leaders or accelerate the improvement of Japan-Korea relations as Prime Minister Ishiba's leadership shrinks.
The biggest variable is whether Prime Minister Ishiba will resign and who will succeed him. If Ishiba, who has shown a relatively moderate perspective on historical issues, steps down and a hardline conservative like Takaichi becomes the new prime minister, there is a high possibility that Japan-Korea relations will deteriorate again.
In this House of Councilors election, a total of 125 seats were elected, including half of the total 248 seats and one vacant seat due to resignation or death.
As a result of the election, the number of seats held by the ruling LDP and the Gong Myoung coalition government decreased from 146 to 122, a reduction of 24 seats. Meanwhile, the total number of opposition seats increased from 99 to 126, an increase of 27 seats.