U.S. President Donald Trump recently demanded that Coca-Cola use "real cane sugar instead of liquid fructose (corn syrup)," leading to various interpretations within the United States regarding the background of this demand.
He, who only drinks diet cola, provided the ambiguous reason that "it's just better!" However, behind this is a complex intertwining of interests of swing state voters and large donors.
According to major U.S. media on the 20th (local time), this decision is seen as a dominant analysis that, rather than risking a departure from its traditional support base in the Midwest Corn Belt, will deliver a sweet gift to secure votes in the key battleground of the South Sugar Belt in next year's elections.
According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), 99% of the American sugarcane industry is concentrated in Florida and Louisiana.
Florida is a representative swing state that determines the outcome of U.S. presidential elections. In the last 2020 presidential election, Trump narrowly won Florida by a margin of 3.3 percentage points.
Although he won, the Democratic Party still wields significant power in urban areas like Miami and among the southern Hispanic population. To ensure a clear victory, he needs to attract a new support base with a carrot.
Louisiana has traditionally been a Republican stronghold. However, it is not a level of safety, as Democratic Governor John Bel Edwards was elected in the 2019 gubernatorial election, indicating a complicated public sentiment.
In this situation, the most certain card to capture the hearts of local voters and the massive sugar corporations known as "Big Sugar" is full support for the sugarcane industry, which is a key industry in both regions.
The Fanjul family, which owns Florida's largest sugarcane processing company, Florida Crystals, is a mega donor representing the Republican Party.
According to the nonprofit organization OpenSecrets, the Fanjul family donated $2.9 million (approximately 4 billion won) in just the last year. Of this, 99% was used for Republican political funding. The Fanjul family also contributed $1 million (approximately 140 million won) to the Trump Super PAC (Political Action Committee) MAGA (Make America Great Again).
In response to this support, the Trump administration acknowledged it through policy. The Trump administration recently announced that it would impose a 50% tariff on Brazil, the world's largest exporter of sugarcane. This 50% tariff effectively eliminates the price competitiveness of Brazilian sugar, blocking access to the U.S. market.
Additionally, a large and beautiful bill (OBBBill Act) passed by Congress this month contains provisions to increase sugarcane subsidies from $0.1975 per pound to $0.24 per pound.
Local media Orlando Sentinel projected that "with the increase in subsidies per pound, sugarcane farmers will receive an additional $680 million (approximately 940 billion won)." This is a sweet carrot that is hard for Big Sugar corporations to refuse.
However, courting the Sugar Belt can also be seen as a betrayal to the Corn Belt, which is politically Trump's hometown.
The Corn Belt, comprised of Ohio, Illinois, Iowa, Missouri, and Kansas, is a central region for U.S. corn production and is a solid stronghold for the Republican Party. In the 2024 presidential election, Trump won decisively in Iowa (55.7%), Missouri (58.5%), and Kansas (57.2%).
Corn Belt farmers protested that the decision to switch from sugarcane sugar would disrupt an industrial ecosystem that has been maintained for nearly half a century overnight.
Coca-Cola, first introduced in 1886, used sugar extracted from sugarcane. However, as the U.S. government imposed high tariffs and quotas on imported sugar to protect domestic farmers in the 1970s, prices for sugarcane skyrocketed.
In contrast, corn, supported by government subsidies, became abundant. Corn processing companies produced liquid fructose, which tastes similar to sugar, in large quantities using this cheap corn.
According to the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), Coca-Cola converted its sweetener to 100% liquid fructose in 1985 due to urgent expense reductions.
Subsequently, coinciding with the soda boom in the U.S., liquid fructose established itself as a key source of income in the Corn Belt region.
John Bode, president of the Corn Refiners Association (CRA), stated that replacing liquid fructose with sugarcane sugar would eliminate thousands of jobs in the U.S. food manufacturing industry and result in reduced farm income while increasing imports of foreign sugar.
This move to replace the liquid fructose in cola with sugar is unlikely to align with the American health promotion program "Healthier America" led by Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert Kennedy Jr.
Sugarcane sugar and liquid fructose have the same calorie count at 4 kcal per gram. The metabolic process by which they are absorbed and broken down into glucose and fructose is also quite similar. Academia holds the view that regardless of which sugar is consumed, excessive intake leads to obesity and metabolic diseases.
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) officially stated that "there is no evidence that the two sweeteners differ in terms of safety."
From Coca-Cola's perspective, using sugarcane sugar is closer to a return to the original flavor rather than a change to a healthier taste. In countries like Mexico that already use sugarcane sugar, Coca-Cola promotes this flavor as the original.
Meanwhile, experts predict that using sugarcane sugar will likely lead to a general increase in consumer prices.
The United States is the world's sixth-largest sugar producer, producing about 9 million tons of sugar each year. However, due to higher consumption, it imports 2 to 3 million tons of sugar annually.
If the approximately 7.1 million tons of liquid fructose currently used in the U.S. beverage industry is replaced with sugarcane sugar all at once, a shortage of supply and subsequent price surge is expected.
Not only sugary drinks like cola but also the prices of all products that currently contain liquid fructose, such as snacks, cereals, and various sauces, are expected to rise like dominoes.