U.S. President Donald Trump is putting pressure on the Brazilian government by warning of a 50% high tariff on Brazilian products. Although he publicly cited the trade deficit as the reason, Trump mentioned the Brazilian government's "unfair treatment" of former President Jair Bolsonaro in his letter, indicating that it is not unrelated to the tariff imposition. While Trump described Bolsonaro as a "victim of a witch hunt" and warned that he would take economic retaliation if the trial against him does not stop, Brazil has strongly retaliated, stating that it "rejects foreign political pressure," escalating the conflict between the two countries.
Earlier this month, Trump asserted in a letter sent to the Brazilian government that "Bolsonaro is a victim of a witch hunt" and demanded that "the trial be stopped immediately." Additionally, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) has launched an investigation into Brazil's trade practices at Trump's direction. The investigation includes digital services, intellectual property rights, and access to the ethanol market.
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva dismissed Trump's pressure, stating he would not "follow the orders of gringos (foreigners)." In an interview with CNN on the 17th (local time), Lula declared, "The Brazilian judiciary is independent, and the president cannot influence it," adding that he is open to negotiations but will not yield to political pressure.
This issue is growing controversial, not merely as a trade conflict, but because the political bond between Trump and Bolsonaro is influencing foreign policy. Bolsonaro was previously referred to as the "Tropical Trump," and both have raised allegations of fraud after losing elections.
Bolsonaro was charged after refusing to accept the results following his defeat in the 2022 presidential election, claiming electoral fraud, and was implicated in the occupation of the National Congress by his supporters in January 2023. He faces charges of conspiracy to commit a coup and disturbing democratic order, with the possibility of receiving decades in prison if convicted.
In a letter sent to the Brazilian government earlier this month, Trump designated Jair Bolsonaro as a "victim of a witch hunt" and explicitly stated that he would impose high tariffs in connection with this. This indicates that the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration go beyond mere trade sanctions and serve as a political pressure tool for Bolsonaro's rescue.
Steve Bannon, Trump's close ally and former White House chief strategist, revealed Trump's intentions more explicitly in a subsequent interview with Brazilian media, saying, "If the trial is stopped, the tariffs will be withdrawn." Earlier, Eduardo Bolsonaro, Bolsonaro's third son and a member of Congress, visited the U.S. and lobbied with White House officials, leading to analysis that Trump's letter and tariff warning resulted from this lobbying.
Public sentiment in Brazil is critical of Trump's actions. Recent polls show that over 70% of respondents believe the tariffs are unfair, and Lula's approval rating has slightly risen. However, the opposition and Bolsonaro's supporters argue that the responsibility for the diplomatic conflict lies with the Lula administration.
Concerns about economic damage are also spreading. Industries in São Paulo, Brazil's largest industrial area, such as steel and agriculture, are expected to be hit, and the Brazilian government is reviewing retaliatory tariffs on U.S. products along with plans to strengthen regulations on technology companies.
Moreover, the Brazilian government is also clarifying the principle of judicial sovereignty. Lula stated, "If Trump were Brazilian, he would have been tried for attempting to intervene in judicial processes," emphasizing that foreign interference is unacceptable. The Brazilian government is considering response measures like retaliatory tariffs while keeping open the possibility of negotiations with the United States.