The conclave to elect the next pope following the death of Pope Francis began on the 7th (local time) amid a failure to reach consensus. Analysts suggest that this conclave will focus on whether to inherit Pope Francis's legacy. Many of the current candidates for the next pope are those who aim to succeed Pope Francis, but there are also candidates with opposing views, drawing attention to which direction the cardinals will choose.
According to the New York Times (NYT) and Financial Times (FT), 133 cardinals from over 70 countries gathered at the Vatican on the 7th to begin the procedure for electing a new pope to lead 1.4 billion Catholics. A specific candidate must receive support from at least two-thirds of the cardinals to be elected pope, but the first vote held that day did not result in an election.
Foreign media described this conclave as "effectively a referendum on the Francis papacy." The cardinals are contemplating whether the past 12 years under Pope Francis were successful or whether a change in direction is needed.
During his tenure, Pope Francis has made controversial statements and implemented reform policies that have had a significant impact. He said he is "not in a position to judge" homosexual clergy and allowed blessings for same-sex couples. Internally, he expanded the College of Cardinals to focus on "peripheral" countries such as Asia and Africa, involved women and laypeople in major meetings, and took measures to reform Vatican administration, enhance financial transparency, and punish those responsible for covering up sexual abuse within the Church.
In response to these changes, progressive cardinals are calling for bolder reforms, while conservative figures maintain the position that these should be retracted or slowed down. Reports say that particularly issues like the ordination of female deacons, mandatory priestly celibacy, and interpretations of doctrine regarding contraception and homosexuality remain sharply divided among the cardinals.
Pope Francis has spoken out on not only religious but also political and social issues. He has actively spoken about climate change, poverty, and the evils of capitalism and has emphasized immigrant rights. This has garnered broad support not only from Catholics but also from non-believers. However, some argue that this external popularity has heightened resentment among conservative factions within the Church.
According to the NYT, Cardinal Camillo Ruini, a conservative commentator, stated in an interview, "The Church must be returned to the hands of the believers," asserting that "Pope Francis supporters are mostly laypeople, while those who oppose him are the actual believers." German Cardinal Gerhard Müller criticized, saying, "Those calling for a succession to Francis are the media and atheists."
However, it has been reported that support for Pope Francis remains predominant among the cardinals with the authority to elect a new pope, as 80% of the voting cardinals were appointed by Francis himself. Cardinal Isao Takahashi Kikuchi of the Archdiocese of Tokyo said, "Now is the time to rethink the essence of the Church, and I hope the new pope will move in the same direction," while Italian Cardinal Baldassare Reina noted, "Now is not the time to look back."
Before his election, Pope Francis was considered a traditionalist, but after assuming the papacy, he demonstrated unprecedented progressive and broad actions. Thus, there is speculation that the next pope may be a leader who advocates for compromise. This could be someone with a pastoral style similar to that of Pope Francis but possessing more restrained language and administrative abilities, or a figure capable of stable governance, even if lacking charisma.