The magnitude 7.7 earthquake that occurred in Myanmar on the 28th tested the political strength of the military, which seized power amid significant damage to infrastructure and social systems from a prolonged civil war. Depending on how the military government handles the aftermath of this earthquake, the strength of its control over the government may either succeed or fail.
The earthquake occurred just 33 kilometers southwest of Mandalay, Myanmar's second-largest city with a population of 1.7 million. Myanmar is not free from earthquakes, as it lies between two tectonic plates— the Indian Plate and the Eurasian Plate. However, this earthquake surpassed previous ones in magnitude, and with a depth of about 10 kilometers, it exacerbated the damage.
However, the infrastructure and social systems are damaged due to the prolonged civil war, making rescue operations challenging. The current ruling military seized power through a coup from a government led by Aung San Suu Kyi, a symbol of democracy in Myanmar four years ago, and has been engaged in a civil war with pro-democracy forces since. The movement, which began as a civil disobedience campaign, has grown into an insurgency involving pro-democracy factions and ethnic minority rebel groups, with the two at the center of the ongoing civil war. While most central plains and cities are under military control, a November report from the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) indicated that the military's control is limited to only 21% of Myanmar's territory. The rugged border areas are controlled by rebel groups. Recently, these rebels advanced into areas near Mandalay and parts of Sagaing, which were heavily impacted by the earthquake. The core disaster area from this earthquake, Mandalay, is on the border between the military government and the rebels.
According to the Associated Press and others, volunteers in Myanmar are urgently digging through the rubble with their bare hands. In response, Min Aung Hlaing, the commander-in-chief of the Myanmar military, declared a state of emergency following the earthquake and requested assistance from the international community. It is unusual for a military government that has isolated Myanmar internationally to seek help from the global community. Rescue teams from China, Russia, India, and the United Nations (UN) sent supplies, including blankets, search dogs, field hospital beds, and drones. Donald Trump, the U.S. president who has called for cuts to overseas aid, also expressed a willingness to assist Myanmar on the 28th.
However, the Myanmar military carried out airstrikes against the rebels on the same day the earthquake occurred. About three hours after the earthquake, the military bombed a pro-democracy rebel base in northern Shan State, resulting in seven deaths. According to the BBC, there were also airstrikes in Changwu village in the northwest Sagaing region, the earthquake's epicenter.
Moreover, there is skepticism that the Myanmar military will not use the aid provided by the international community to save lives. Joe Freeman, a Myanmar researcher at Amnesty International, noted to the Wall Street Journal, "The Myanmar military does not have a reputation for using aid properly," and asked, "How can we believe that a military that bombards hospitals and arrests aid providers will deliver assistance to the people?"