Energy corporations that had left Russia after the invasion of Ukraine are considering returning to Russia. This is due to the possibility that the United States may accept Russia's demands for the lifting of sanctions as Russia and Ukraine, mediated by the U.S., have agreed to exclude the use of force in the Black Sea.
According to Bloomberg on the 26th (local time), Tove Jonhkvist, CEO of the global oil transaction corporation Gunvor Group, stated at the Financial Times (FT) commodity summit held in Lausanne, Switzerland, "If sanctions are eased to the extent that we can return, why wouldn't we go back to Russia?" This implies that they would return to Russia if the sanctions against them were lifted.
Marco Dunand, CEO of the global energy corporation Mercuria Energy Group, also noted, "If sanctions are lifted, we will look into whether we have a role in the raw materials sector," saying, "Although we are somewhat cautious regarding sanctions, if they are lifted, we will certainly look for opportunities to enhance corporate value in Russia."
Global energy corporations were operating large-scale businesses in Russia until the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. However, as U.S.-led Western sanctions against Russia intensified, they terminated contracts and partnerships in Russia and withdrew from transactions involving Russian oil and metals.
The atmosphere changed starting from the 23rd when Ukraine and Russia began ceasefire negotiations in the Black Sea, mediated by the United States. Although Russia agreed to the terms of the agreement, it presented conditions such as the lifting of financial sanctions on agricultural and fertilizer exports and the restoration of consolidation in the international payment system (SWIFT).
The United States is also carefully reviewing Russia's demands. According to CNN, U.S. President Donald Trump, when asked if he agreed to Russia's conditions, said, "We are considering all conditions," adding, "There are 5 to 6 conditions, and we are looking into all of them."
If Russia's demands are accepted, Russian energy could return to the international market. Bloomberg reported that "investors are simulating the possibility of prices plummeting with the return of Russian raw materials to Europe, from gas to aluminum."
However, it is widely expected that it will take considerable time for Western sanctions against Russia to be lifted. Russell Hardy, CEO of the Dutch energy corporation Vitol, stated, "I could be wrong, and the lifting of sanctions could happen faster than expected," but added, "We believe that the lifting of sanctions will take one or two years, so there is no urgency within the company to prepare for a return to Russia."
Richard Holdsworth, CEO of the global raw materials distribution corporation Trafigura Group, noted that even if U.S. sanctions are lifted, the complexities of returning to Russia would arise due to the remaining sanctions and the nature of the company with many British employees, stating, "We can only consider a return to Russia if all sanctions are lifted."
Reuters reported that "the White House has already begun formulating plans to ease Russian sanctions as part of President Trump's efforts to end the war in Ukraine," adding that "European officials are likely to avoid imports of Russian oil even if sanctions are eased."