The United States and Ukraine agreed on a 30-day immediate ceasefire plan during a high-level meeting held in Saudi Arabia on the 11th (local time), deepening the concerns of Russian President Vladimir Putin. On the 12th, The New York Times (NYT) noted, "With the U.S. and Ukraine agreeing to a ceasefire plan, the situation has become complicated for Putin," adding, "Tensions are rising between Putin's desire for a major victory in Ukraine and his desire to maintain a close relationship with President Donald Trump."
Putin has previously rejected tentative ceasefire plans. After Trump took office last January, he said, "The goal should not be just a temporary ceasefire or a respite for troop restructuring and rearmament," adding, "It must be a long-term peace that respects the legitimate interests of all ethnic groups in the region." Putin had also rejected ceasefire proposals mediated by the United Kingdom and France.
The reason Putin rejected the ceasefire plan is due to concerns that Russia's influence in the war would weaken. Currently, the battlefield situation favors Russian forces. The NYT quoted analysts, stating, "Putin's opposition to a temporary ceasefire is based on the simple calculation that if Moscow stops fighting without concessions while Russian forces have the upper hand on the battlefield, it will lose its negotiating power."
In particular, Putin has opposed Ukraine's North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) membership and has stated that he will not stop the war until NATO promises to reduce its activities in Eastern Europe. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov noted during a meeting last month with U.S. Senator Marco Rubio and other U.S. representatives that "NATO expansion and Ukraine's NATO membership are direct threats to the interests and sovereignty of the Russian Federation."
However, following the U.S. and Ukraine's ceasefire proposal, the atmosphere in Russia seems to be subtly changing. Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesperson, stated on the 12th that Russia is carefully studying the ceasefire proposal from the two countries. He also expressed expectations that the U.S. will convey details of the negotiations and agreed interests to Russia in the coming days.
Trump's pressure on Putin is intensifying. Trump said on the same day, "People from the U.S. government are currently going to Russia" and added, "Now, the ceasefire depends on Russia." When asked whether he could exert pressure or impose sanctions for Russia to agree to the ceasefire, he replied, "I can," but added, "I hope it won't be necessary." Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, it has faced a total of 21,692 sanctions from the U.S. and partner countries.
Projections regarding whether Russia will join the ceasefire vary. Samuel Charap, a Russia analyst for the RAND Corporation, stated, "It is not entirely out of the question for Russia to accept the 30-day ceasefire plan," citing its vested interests in relations with the Trump administration. Russian far-right ideologue Alexander Dugin stated on social media platform X (formerly Twitter) the day before, "As Putin has clearly stated several times, he will not accept a ceasefire without discussing firm conditions for peace. This time, Trump is wrong."
Ukrainian political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko said, "Putin faces a difficult dilemma. Ukraine or Trump?" He added, "Putin would have hoped to use Trump's assistance to force Ukraine to surrender, regain control over Ukraine, and simultaneously reach agreements on various tactical and strategic issues with Trump. But now it's time to make a choice."