A report has emerged that China's goal of becoming a world-class space power by 2050 is yielding results, increasing U.S. security concerns. In particular, China has established collaborative relationships with over 150 countries through the "Belt and Road Initiative" (BRI), raising the prospect that it may quickly enhance its competitive edge by selling space technology to these nations. As a so-called "Belt and Road space initiative" could be established, attention is focused on whether U.S. measures to curb Chinese space technology will be further strengthened.
According to the Hong Kong South China Morning Post (SCMP) on the 10th, Ron Ritchie, an intelligence analyst with the U.S. Space Force, noted that at the "Space Security 2025 Conference" hosted by the UK think tank Chatham House in London earlier this month, "It is clear that China has significant interest in acquiring capabilities up to 36,000 kilometers above the Earth, and is actively seeking to test these capabilities."
Ritchie cited the successful launch of the Chinese fuel supply and maintenance satellite "Shen'jie 25" in January this year as an example. Currently, the satellite has an operational lifespan of around 15 years, and once the fuel tank designed for this lifespan is depleted, it becomes space debris even if all other functions remain normal. Therefore, fuel supply technology has been identified as a top priority for extending satellite lifespan and improving economic efficiency. In this area, China has achieved results. Ritchie stated, "This is the first time China has revealed its ability to perform refueling and maintenance in orbit, and it is a technology that could change the landscape of the existing space industry."
So far, the U.S. remains the leader in extending satellite lifespan. The U.S. defense contractor Northrop Grumman first supplied fuel to a satellite in 2019, extending its operational lifespan by five years. However, this gap could narrow at any time. NASA also had a similar project but reportedly halted it last year due to technical difficulties and expense issues. Ritchie said, "We are seeing significant risks arising from China's unprecedented growth and unmanaged competition."
China unveiled its "National Space Science Medium- and Long-term Development Plan (2024-2050)" last October, aimed at building a world-class space power by 2050. The first phase includes operating the space station "Tiangong" by 2027 and conducting manned lunar and planetary exploration projects. After that, from 2028 to 2035, China aims to detect the edges of the solar system, discover super planetary systems, and collect atmospheric samples from Venus before returning. Plans are underway to launch "Chang'e 7" next year to search for traces of water and ice at the lunar south pole, and a project is also ongoing to build a solar power station in space.
The U.S. believes that China's expansion into space could jeopardize national security. This is because space technology is not just a matter of scientific advancement but is also linked to military, economic, and technological dominance. George Landrith, chairman of the Freedom Frontier think tank, said, "China's steady advance toward space dominance is a significant concern for the U.S.," adding, "It has become increasingly clear that the U.S. needs a reliable space strategy to maintain its leading position on the global stage, and without a coherent plan, national security could be in serious peril." The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) also stated regarding Mars exploration, "Conducting this mission before China won't be inexpensive, but it is a price worth paying," noting that failing to pay that price could risk the U.S. national prestige and hand over the opportunity for the greatest discovery in history—the development of life on another planet—to China.
There is particular concern in the U.S. that China could leverage the Belt and Road network to expand its space industry. Countries lacking space technology may collaborate with China, potentially leading to a rapid expansion of China's space capabilities. According to SCMP, approximately 150 countries are currently participating in the Belt and Road Initiative. Ritchie said, "It is clear that China seeks to position itself as the premier partner in the space sector using the Belt and Road Initiative." The U.S. has already taken measures to restrict cooperation between China and NASA, excluding China from the "Artemis Accords," an international cooperation framework for space development, and this pushback may intensify going forward.
Analysts predict that competition between the U.S. and China may focus particularly on the development of reusable spacecraft, which is essential for expense reduction. The U.S. is seeing growth in the reusable launch vehicle market led by private space companies such as SpaceX. China successfully launched its first reusable test satellite, "Shen'jie 19," in September last year.