Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky noted that the most frequently used term during his meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump and JD Vance at the White House on the 28th of last month was "security guarantee." This indicates that Ukraine wants the U.S. and Europe to ensure its security. Zelensky is asking for guarantees that Russia will not be able to attack Ukraine again within 1 to 2 years after a ceasefire.
On the 2nd, Zelensky argued during a meeting with European leaders in London that "we need very specific security guarantees and very specific providers to make it 100% impossible for Russia to carry out any further attacks." However, CNN pointed out on the 6th that while Ukraine wants security guarantees from the U.S. and Europe, the question remains as to who will step up.
Trump currently employs a sort of dismissive strategy by stating that ensuring Ukraine's security would be easy. When meeting with Zelensky, Trump provided vague responses, saying, "Security issues are only about 2% of the total problem that Ukraine is currently facing." Furthermore, Trump claims that a mineral agreement he wishes to establish with Ukraine will ensure its security. He sees the presence of U.S. corporations mining minerals like rare earth elements in Ukraine as a way to counter Russia. Trump commented, "If we are there with a lot of workers, I don't think anyone will mess around." However, Trump's argument lacks persuasion given that many U.S. corporations were already operating in Ukraine up to the day before Russia invaded on February 24, 2022.
There are analyses suggesting that Minister Marco Rubio is presenting more realistic options. In an interview with Fox News, Minister Rubio stated, "What Ukraine needs is (military) deterrence," adding that it is essential to make it very costly for anyone attacking them in the future. He continued, "It's not just the U.S.; Europe can get involved as well."
On the 2nd, European leaders held a summit in London to discuss solutions for the Ukraine issue and announced strategies to defend Ukraine. U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer emphasized that this is a "once-in-a-generation moment for European security," urging European nations to build a united front. French President Emmanuel Macron stated that there would be a troop deployment once peace is established. Both the U.K. and France expressed their intention to send troops to Ukraine to maintain peace, and Australia similarly indicated its willingness.
However, other European nations are not proactive. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni stated that the deployment of Italian troops has "not been discussed." There are also criticisms that due to a lack of military capability in Europe, practical solutions are lacking. Claudia Major and Aldo Kleeman from the German Institute for International Security Affairs pointed out in a recent paper that Europe "lacks the necessary military force, political will, and unity," which is the backdrop to Starmer's remark that "U.S. support is necessary to defend Ukraine."
In the midst of differing opinions within Europe regarding the deployment in Ukraine, many believe securing over 100,000 troops necessary to guarantee Ukraine's security is unrealistic. Considering that 48,000 troops were deployed for the 1999 Kosovo peacekeeping mission, Ukraine, which is more than 50 times larger than Kosovo, requires over 100,000 personnel.
Moreover, if Russia drops long-range shells on European forces in the Ukrainian border area, a situation could arise where NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) engages in war with Russia without U.S. support.
◇ "Need for U.S.-backed European troops and reinforcement of Ukrainian forces"
Ultimately, in the short term, securing both European and U.S. military assistance is necessary to ensure Ukraine's security, and in the long run, Ukraine must bolster its own military capacity.
Matthew Schmidt, a professor of national security and political science at the University of New Haven, stated to CNN that "realistically, ensuring Ukraine's security requires the deployment of multiple national armies, U.S. support, and a modernized Ukrainian military," adding that "about 200,000 Ukrainian ground troops and up to 100,000 peacekeepers could exert deterrence." This would correspond to approximately one-third of the Russian forces deployed inside and outside Ukraine.
Most importantly, there is a shared view that U.S. support is essential. Even if European nations establish their own peacekeeping forces, the capability to deter Russia's attacks necessitates U.S. airlift capabilities, satellite communications, and missile defense capabilities. Reflecting this, Prime Minister Starmer has argued that "(the deployment in Ukraine) must receive strong support from the U.S."
Additionally, the capabilities and number of Ukrainian forces must be increased. Zelensky also remarked, "The best security guarantee is a strong Ukrainian military, a sufficient number of strong Ukrainian forces." To enhance Ukraine's military capabilities, long-range missiles capable of attacking Russia's supply chains and logistics hubs, as well as air power to defend against Russia's attacks, are required.
However, deploying European forces within Ukraine requires Russia's consent. The Russian Foreign Ministry stated that the deployment of NATO forces in Ukraine is "absolutely unacceptable," claiming that the presence of 100,000 peacekeepers in Ukraine would be tantamount to effectively occupying Ukraine.