Pope Francis has been hospitalized for 12 days as of the 25th (local time). He was admitted to Agostino Gemelli University Hospital in Rome, Italy, due to pneumonia that worsened from bronchitis that lasted a week, starting from the 14th. Both lungs of Pope Francis have pneumonia, and he is suffering from kidney failure following a drop in platelet count. His condition worsened beginning the night of the 22nd, when he showed symptoms of asthmatic respiratory distress. Being 89 years old this year also contributes to the slow recovery. Reports suggest that the Roman Catholic Church is carefully crafting a succession plan.
The next pope changes due to the current pope's resignation or passing. Former Pope Benedict XVI resigned in 2013 due to his advanced age and deteriorating health. If the pope passes away, Giovanni Battista Rey, the head of the College of Cardinals, will summon cardinals from around the world to Rome to elect the successor to Pope Francis in what is known as the 'conclave.'
The dictionary definition of conclave means 'locked with a key' and refers to 'the location of the papal election isolated from the outside.' When there is a vacancy due to the passing or resignation of the pope, the global cardinals wait for up to 20 days for everyone to arrive in Rome before the 'papal election conclave' begins. Currently, there are 253 cardinals, and only 138 cardinals can vote in the papal election this year due to the rule stating that those over 80 do not qualify.
The meeting place for the cardinals is the Sistine Chapel in Vatican City, while the accommodations for voting cardinals are restricted to the nearby Casa Santa Marta. This location remains closed until the newly elected pope is officially announced, and all voting cardinals must take an oath of secrecy and vote in secret. To elect a new pope, a two-thirds majority of the voting cardinals (92) is needed. Therefore, the cardinals will repeatedly vote until a pope is elected with a two-thirds majority. At the end of each voting session, smoke is released from a chimney visible in St. Peter's Square. If a new pope is elected with a two-thirds majority, white smoke will rise. If the voting ends without achieving a two-thirds majority, black smoke will rise.
Subsequently, the elected individual is asked whether they will accept the papacy, and if they do, they are asked what name they wish to be called as pope. The newly elected pope then proceeds to the balcony of St. Peter's Basilica. Upon the senior cardinal declaring in Latin 'Habemus papam' (We have a pope), the papal election process is concluded.
◇ Six conservative and progressive cardinals are papal candidates
Currently, there are about six prominent candidates for the papacy. The Times of London, Telegraph, and others have identified Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu (65), Cardinal Pietro Parolin (70), Cardinal Raymond Burke (76), Cardinal Peter Erdő (72), Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle (67), and Cardinal Gerhard Müller (78) as candidates.
The Times reported on the 25th that a movement to select a new pope could arise from the conservative faction within the Catholic Church if Pope Francis resigns or passes away. They view Pope Francis as a progressive figure who is inclusive of homosexuals, leading the conservative faction to seek to propose a candidate for the next pope.
Cardinals considered to be conservative include Cardinal Burke and Cardinal Müller. Cardinal Burke, who became a cardinal in 2010, is from the United States and supports traditional Latin Mass. He has criticized Pope Francis on issues regarding canon law and theology. In response, Pope Francis has deprived Cardinal Burke of his Vatican residence and pension benefits.
Cardinal Müller is also viewed as a conservative figure and is a confidant of former Pope Benedict XVI. He has published a book arguing that Pope Francis's reform policies contradict biblical teachings. In 2017, Pope Francis dismissed Cardinal Müller from the position of Minister of the Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith. Cardinal Erdő, who previously served as the president of the Council of European Bishops' Conferences, is also considered a conservative figure. Cardinal Erdő has opposed allowing divorced and remarried Catholics to receive communion.
Conversely, there are progressive candidates among the potential next popes. Cardinal Parolin, the Secretary of State of the Vatican and second-in-command of the Catholic Church, is Italian. He has worked closely with Pope Francis for more than 10 years and became a cardinal in 2014.
Cardinal Tagle, who is from the Philippines and is known as the 'Francis of Asia,' also leans progressive. He became a cardinal in 2012 and, like Pope Francis, supports positions favorable to homosexuals. Cardinal Besungu is a voice for the African Catholic Church and serves as the president of the symposium of bishops' conferences of Africa and Madagascar. He was appointed a cardinal by Pope Francis in 2019.
Meanwhile, Cardinal Parolin has been leading a night vigil prayer for the pope's recovery in St. Peter's Square since the day before. Thousands of believers gathered despite the inclement weather with rain.