The French government has again faced a crisis of collapse after two months, but Prime Minister François Bayrou barely survived a no-confidence vote, allowing for a sigh of relief. Prime Minister Bayrou has now been able to process the urgently needed 2025 budget proposal safely, but political turmoil continues.
On the 5th (local time), French media reported that the no-confidence motion against Prime Minister Bayrou, submitted by the far-left party France Insoumise (LFI), failed in the lower house, receiving only 128 votes out of a total of 577 seats. A majority (289 votes) is needed for the no-confidence motion to pass. Bayrou, appointed by French President Emmanuel Macron, also survived a no-confidence vote in the lower house on the 16th of last month, where only 133 members supported the move against him.
In France, conflicts between the ruling and opposition parties surrounding the processing of the budget proposal are ongoing. There have been four changes of prime minister in the past year, and in December of last year, former Prime Minister Michel Barnier resigned due to a no-confidence motion after failing to narrow the differences of opinion on this year's budget. According to Article 5 of the French Constitution, a prime minister who has been dismissed by the parliament must submit a resignation letter to the president, and the entire cabinet must resign along with the prime minister. It has been 62 years since a prime minister resigned due to a no-confidence motion, dating back to Georges Pompidou's government in October 1962. Since then, the budget processing has carried over into the following year as a new prime minister is designated and the government is formed.
With the failure of this no-confidence motion, Prime Minister Bayrou's cabinet will hand the 2025 budget proposal to the Senate for final approval. Once the Senate agrees, the French government can proceed with various projects based on the confirmed budget. France has been operating under a temporary budget since the beginning of this year. This budget proposal aims to reduce France's fiscal deficit to 5.4%. The previous Barnier cabinet attempted to lower the fiscal deficit to 5.0%, but modified the target figures to reflect the demands of the opposition. To achieve this, the government needs to reduce its expenditure by €50 billion (approximately 71 trillion won) and secure tax revenue of €20 billion through tax increases.
The New York Times (NYT) reported, "Prime Minister Bayrou is also pushing other bills that dictate expenditures related to health and social security," noting, "This may face the possibility of further no-confidence votes, but it seems likely to get through them safely."
However, there are indications that the fundamental problems faced by Prime Minister Bayrou have not yet been resolved. France has been in a divided government situation since last year's general election. The leftist alliance New People's Front (NFP) came in first, the centrist forces supporting President Macron took second, and the far-right National Rally (LN) came in third. As a result, no party has a clear majority, leading to a 'hung parliament' situation. A hung parliament refers to a state of parliament where no party holds a majority within a parliamentary system, creating an unstable environment.
The NYT evaluated, "The leftist alliance and the National Rally can introduce no-confidence motions whenever necessary, which will be a constant threat to Prime Minister Bayrou's leadership."