As Donald Trump's presidency begins, analysis has emerged suggesting that uncertainty is growing about the future of U.S. and Asian alliances. Karishma Vaswani, a political columnist for Bloomberg in Asia, noted, "Political paralysis in the Indo-Pacific region has created a leadership vacuum," evaluating that the political turmoil in South Korea and Japan could lead to a weakening of the alliance with the United States.
Vaswani expressed concern about South Korea's political instability. She said, "The impeachment of President Yoon Suk Yeol and the ensuing political turmoil may result in South Korea electing a new president within this year," adding, "The most likely candidate is Lee Jae-myung, who has hinted that he would be less friendly to the U.S. than his predecessor." She further evaluated, "The alliance with South Korea has played a crucial role in deterring North Korea's nuclear ambitions, but recent political turmoil has rendered the future of the alliance uncertain."
Vaswani explained that Japan is in a similar situation. The Liberal Democratic Party of Japan lost a majority in the House of Representatives election on October 27 last year. With the House now being a divided assembly, the Ishiba Cabinet must obtain cooperation from the opposition parties to handle budget proposals and legislation. Vaswani stated, "The Japan-U.S. alliance is similar to the 'special relationship' between the U.K. and the U.S., and Japan has been in a crucial position to restrain China's regional influence. However, with the Liberal Democratic Party losing its majority, political instability is increasing." She also added that the possibility of President Trump's withdrawal from multilateral frameworks could place Japan in a difficult situation.
The Australian Strategic Policy Institute emphasizes that the United States, South Korea, and Japan need to strengthen cooperation to respond to the dual threats posed by China and North Korea. In particular, it highlights the necessity for joint investments in critical technologies such as semiconductor manufacturing and artificial intelligence (AI), and preparing for new threats through defense system cooperation.
Vaswani explained that President Trump's "America First" policy could be a variable. As President Trump demands that Asian allies increase their defense spending, the lack of political leadership in South Korea and Japan could pose a problem. President Trump is demanding that South Korea pay billions of dollars more each year in exchange for not withdrawing U.S. troops from the country.
Vaswani emphasized that in the face of the growing challenges from China and North Korea, the United States, Japan, and South Korea must work together to design a stable future. She said, "Even amidst political turmoil, the alliance between the three countries must be further strengthened," adding, "It is important to safeguard common security and economic interests through cooperation."