Korea came up short in Canada's next-generation submarine project (CPSP), worth up to 60 trillion won, but observers say it engraved the country's defense competitiveness on the global stage by going toe-to-toe with Germany, a leader in submarine technology. With demand for submarines rising worldwide, attention is on whether Korea can use this experience as a springboard to launch a full-fledged run of contract wins going forward.
On the 6th (local time), Canada Prime Minister Mark Carney said TKMS was selected as the preferred negotiating partner among Korea's Hanwha Ocean and Germany's Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems (TKMS), which had made the CPSP shortlist. The CPSP is a program under which Canada plans to introduce up to 12 new diesel submarines to replace its four Victoria-class boats scheduled to retire in the mid-2030s. When adding maintenance, repair and operations (MRO) expense over the next 30 years to the shipbuilding expense, the total program is estimated to reach up to 60 trillion won.
Although it lost the CPSP bid, Korea did not come away empty-handed. The submarines Hanwha Ocean and HD Hyundai Heavy Industries proposed to Canada were the 3,000-ton "Jangbogo-III"-based "Batch-II." By applying an air-independent propulsion (AIP) system and lithium-ion batteries that do not require air, the submarine can operate underwater for more than three weeks and sail up to 7,000 nautical miles (12,900 km). It was assessed to have the strongest operational performance among existing diesel-powered submarines.
On Mar. in Jinhae, South Gyeongsang, the Dosan Ahn Changho class (KSS-III) Submarine, the first submarine of Jangbogo-III Batch-I, set sail, crossed the Pacific, and sailed about 14,000 km, demonstrating its operational capability. A Canadian Navy sailor aboard at the time said it "felt like going from a 1999 Honda Civic to a new Tesla," giving it high marks.
In this CPSP bid, some assessed that Korea outpaced Germany in terms of submarine capability. In fact, Jangbogo-III Batch-II is equipped with vertical launch systems (VLS) capable of firing submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBM), enabling an asymmetric deterrence strategy. But TKMS's "212CD" proposed to Canada has no VLS. Unlike TKMS, having a demonstrator called "Jang Young-sil" was also a strength.
In the defense industry, attention is on the fact that Korea has drawn level with Germany. Germany built and fought with submarines in World War I and II, amassing more than 100 years of experience. Export-model submarines made by TKMS have become the standard for navies around the world. Hanwha Ocean's current submarine construction technology was also transferred from Germany during the Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering era.
The very fact that it went neck and neck with Germany shows Korea's submarine technology has advanced significantly. A defense industry official said, "It would have been good to ultimately win the Canada submarine order, but the fact that we made the shortlist for Canada's submarine bid alongside TKMS, the world's most prominent submarine manufacturer, is also something for Korea's defense industry to be proud of."
Korea's reliable delivery capability also emerged through this bid. Hanwha Ocean proposed to Canada that, assuming a contract this year, it could deliver the first boat in 2032 and supply four by 2035. While submarines usually take nine years from contract to delivery, this would shorten it to six. Germany agreed to hand over four submarines to Canada by 2036, one year later.
As Korea's submarine technology became widely known through the CPSP competition, expectations are rising for the possibility of winning upcoming global submarine orders. Saudi Arabia is currently pushing to introduce at least four to six 3,000-ton-class submarines and five 4,000–6,500-ton-class frigates. The industry sees the bidding scale related to the Saudi Navy's modernization process alone at about 10 trillion won. Greece plans to procure four next-generation submarines to replace its aging boats.
Demand for submarines is also rising in Southeast Asia. The Philippines is reviewing a project to procure two medium submarines worth 2 trillion won, and Thailand is pushing to introduce four 4,000-ton-class frigates. Malaysia will introduce two multi-purpose support ships this year.
Hanwha Ocean said, "Despite putting our utmost effort into winning the order based on the government's full support, our submarines' excellent performance, and the Navy's successful operational experience, we could not overcome the wall of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) alliance," adding, "We will closely analyze the tasks identified through this bid, devise definitive alternatives, and surely find a way for 'K-marine defense' to leap further in the global market."