Exports of lubricants and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) in March increased from the previous month. Unlike other petroleum products such as gasoline, diesel, and kerosene, they were excluded from the government's export-restricted items, and demand has continued to grow in the United States and China amid the recent expansion of the artificial intelligence (AI) and electric vehicle markets, factors that analysts say drove the gains.
According to the Korea National Oil Corporation (KNOC) on the 8th, lubricant exports in March totaled 25.93 million barrels, up to 1.5 times the February volume (17.52 million barrels). Lubricant exports fell in February from January (21.37 million barrels) and then turned higher in March.
LPG exports followed the same trend as lubricants. LPG exports fell from 1.42 million barrels in January to 742,100 barrels in February, but rebounded to 1.21 million barrels in March.
Even on a per-day export basis adjusted for business days excluding weekends and holidays, the increase in March was clear.
For lubricants, daily export volume on business days was 103,059 barrels in February, but reached 123,476 barrels in March. LPG also rose over the same period from 4,365 barrels to 5,762 barrels.
By contrast, exports of gasoline, diesel, and kerosene have continued to decline since January. Gasoline exports fell from 101.1 million barrels (January) to 105.4 million barrels (February) and 69.05 million barrels (March).
Diesel exports also decreased after hitting 189.73 million barrels in January, to 171.54 million barrels in February and 149.05 million barrels in March. Kerosene exports likewise declined from January (10.61 million barrels) to February (4.91 million barrels) and March (2.24 million barrels).
Lubricant exports were concentrated in countries with high industrial demand, including the United States, China, and India. Exports of lubricants to the United States reached 5.42 million barrels in March, 2.64 times February's 2.05 million barrels.
Lubricant exports to China rose from 1.78 million barrels to 2.92 million barrels over the same period, while exports to India increased from 6.53 million barrels to 7.95 million barrels.
A refining industry official said, "In India, demand for lubricants increased as heavy trucks and commercial vehicles grew," adding, "In China, the expanding electric vehicle market, and in the United States, the growth of the artificial intelligence (AI) market boosting demand for server cooling oils, contributed to higher lubricant exports."
Another industry official said, "With no export restrictions on lubricants, exports appear to have increased as existing contracts were fulfilled."
For LPG, some interpret the rebound in March exports as reflecting volumes sold by SK Gas and E1 on the spot market being counted as exports.
An industry official said, "Ninety percent of the LPG entering the domestic market is from North America, so it is not subject to export restrictions," adding, "Amid price volatility caused by the United States–Iran war, India and Southeast Asia, which had used Middle Eastern LPG, shifted to North American supplies, increasing exports."
Despite the increase in lubricant exports, the government said domestic supply will not be disrupted. The Ministry of Trade, Industry and Resources inspected supply and demand at about 70 key lubricant dealership hubs starting on the 20th.
An official at the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MOTI) said, "Domestic production and supply volumes of lubricants have not decreased, and there were distribution issues," adding, "We see the increase in March lubricant exports as linked to higher international prices. Domestic lubricant production and supply have not declined."