The shipbuilding industry is booming due to a tanker shortage caused by the Middle East war. Some shipbuilders are even boosting revenue by reselling canceled tankers elsewhere at high prices. With traffic through the Strait of Hormuz blocked, more ships are taking detours and the crude supply chain is being reshaped, sending the value of tankers that can sail immediately soaring.
◇No ships ready to sail right now… tanker prices spike
According to Clarksons Research, a British shipbuilding and shipping market analysis firm, as of the first week of May on the 6th, the price of a secondhand Suezmax-class tanker was $92 million (about 135 billion won), up $4 million (about 5.9 billion won) from a week earlier. A Suezmax is the largest ship that can pass through the Suez Canal and typically carries about 1 million barrels of crude.
As demand concentrates on finding vessels that can sail immediately, the five-year-old Suezmax secondhand price has climbed to $92.7 million (about 136 billion won), exceeding the ship new building price of $88.8 million (about 130 billion won). An unusual situation is unfolding in which secondhand prices have surpassed the price of newly built ships.
The tanker shortage is the result of overlapping geopolitical risks and demand to replace aging vessels. As major importers expanded supply routes to North America and elsewhere due to instability in crude supplies from the Middle East, transport distances lengthened and more ships were needed to carry the same volumes.
The United States' tightened sanctions on the so-called "shadow fleet" that circumvents transport of Iranian crude also exacerbated the vessel shortage. As more crude buyers sought ships free of sanction risks, demand grew for tankers able to operate normally. In addition, 46% of all tankers and 40% of Suezmaxes are 15 years old or older, sustaining demand for replacement orders.
Thanks to the tanker rally, Samsung Heavy Industries seized a silver-lining opportunity by selling at high prices canceled ships that were at risk of becoming toxic inventory. In June 2023, Samsung Heavy Industries signed a construction contract with an Oceania shipowner at $86.13 million per ship (about 113.8 billion won at the exchange rate at the time) with delivery scheduled through Feb. this year. But when the owner failed to pay the final installment, Samsung Heavy Industries terminated the contracts sequentially in Feb. and Mar. this year.
These ships, which nearly became a headache, quickly turned into hot listings in the resale market as tanker values jumped. When Samsung Heavy Industries put them up for sale, asking prices shot up to as high as $120 million (about 176 billion won) per ship, and actual sales reportedly occurred around $100 million to $120 million (about 147 billion to 176 billion won) per ship. Compared with the original contract price, they sold for at least $13 million (about 19 billion won) more per ship.
As ship prices spiked sharply in a short period, the original ordering owner pushed back by filing for an injunction to prohibit ship disposal and transfer of possession with the Changwon District Court in April. However, Samsung Heavy Industries dismissed the move, saying, "There is a clear clause that after termination under the contract, the ships are received by Samsung Heavy Industries, so there is no issue with resale." The industry expects that even if Samsung Heavy Industries pays some compensation expense due to legal disputes, the resale gains are large enough to leave a profit.
◇K-shipbuilders keep winning tanker orders… betting on diversifying ship types
Hanwha Ocean is increasing orders for very large crude carriers (VLCC). A VLCC can carry 2 million barrels of crude at once and is a ship type whose value has risen steeply since the Middle East war. Hanwha Ocean has won orders for 10 VLCCs so far this year, five times more than the two in the same period last year. At an earnings conference call late last month, Hanwha Ocean said, "Large ship types such as LNG carriers and VLCCs will drive this year's sales," and added, "The VLCC market is expected to see continued newbuilding demand as geopolitical risks, supply chain diversification, and demand for replacing aging ships converge."
Mid-sized shipbuilder Daehan Shipbuilding is also reaping solid benefits from the tanker boom. Through April this year, it won 13 out of about 50 Suezmax orders worldwide, ranking No. 1 with a 26% share. In April, it also set a new record high by winning a Suezmax order at $91.5 million (about 134 billion won). In the first quarter alone, it secured $1.1 billion (about 1.617 trillion won) in orders, achieving its annual target early, and as of April, it had an order backlog of 34 ships worth $3.2 billion (about 4.7 trillion won), enough work for three years and six months.
Armed with a hefty backlog, it also placed a bet on diversifying ship types. At an earnings conference call late last month, Daehan Shipbuilding said, "Our goal is to maintain the operating margin of around 26%, which we expect to achieve stably this year, through 2029," adding, "While pursuing selective orders at high prices, we are also strategically designing very large gas carriers (VLGC), for which demand is expected to expand." Daehan Shipbuilding plans to complete the basic VLGC model design in the first half and begin full-scale sales in the second half. The strategy is to enter the gas carrier market on the back of revenue secured from the tanker boom.
The tanker market's strength is expected to continue for the time being. A shipbuilding industry official said, "The average Suezmax ship new building price is currently around $90 million (about 132 billion won), leaving room for further gains compared with the 2008 peak of $100 million (about 147 billion won)," adding, "For the time being, Middle East risks, demand to replace aging ships, and a shortage of shipyard slots will intersect, keeping domestic shipbuilders on a course of selective high-priced orders."