The maritime logistics crunch triggered by the Middle East war is lifting demand for large ships such as very large crude carriers and liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers, putting a favorable wind behind the shipbuilding industry. In the first quarter, Korean shipbuilders continued selective orders focused on high value-added ships such as LNG carriers while Chinese shipyards filled their docks with tankers. The combined operating profit of the three Korean shipbuilders, which have focused for years on an order strategy centered on profitability, is expected to be around 2 trillion won in the first quarter, the highest level on record.
◇ Orders for VLCCs and LNG carriers surge in Q1
According to Clarksons Research on the 9th, global new ship orders in the first quarter of this year reached 17.58 million CGT (compensated gross tonnage), up 40.3% from a year earlier. By hull count alone, the total was 554, the same as in the first quarter last year, but on a CGT basis, which reflects ship size and construction complexity, order volume rose sharply. This means that even with the same number of ships ordered, demand concentrated on larger vessels such as VLCCs and large LNG carriers.
With the Strait of Hormuz, which handles 20% of the world's crude flows, blocked, demand first surged for very large crude carriers (VLCCs). As tankers were stuck, freight rates soared, and shippers jumped into a race to secure VLCCs, which can carry 2 million barrels of crude at a time, to maximize revenue. As VLCCs became scarce, orders also began to increase for Suezmax crude carriers, a class one notch below. In fact, global tanker orders in the first quarter totaled 325 million DWT (deadweight tonnage), a 532% spike from a year earlier. Seventy-two percent of last year's full-year orders were concentrated in the first quarter.
Orders for LNG carriers also jumped. In the first quarter, orders for large LNG carriers reached 35 ships, about 11 times more than the same period last year (3 ships). In just three months, 92% of last year's 38 orders were placed. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted LNG exports from Qatar's gas fields, swelling demand among global energy importers to secure alternative supplies. Shipping U.S. LNG to Asia is about 1.7 times farther than shipping Qatari LNG, meaning more ships are needed to move the same volume.
◇ VLCCs to Chinese shipyards, Korea focuses on high value-added ships
Korean and Chinese shipyards made different choices amid the surge in demand for large vessels. While China absorbed volumes centered on tankers such as VLCCs, Korea prioritized orders for higher-priced, high value-added ships such as LNG carriers. As of last month, the ship new building price for a 174,000-cubic-meter LNG carrier was $248.5 million, about twice that of a VLCC ($129.5 million).
According to KB Securities, as of the tally on the 6th, LNG carriers accounted for 49%—nearly half—of Korea's new order mix by ship type, followed by tankers (30.2%) and container ships (13.4%). In contrast, China's order share was highest for tankers at 59.9%, followed by bulk carriers (24.4%) and container ships (8.1%).
An industry official said, "China has aggressively pursued orders from December to February to fill empty docks," adding, "Korean shipbuilders are holding off on contracts for ships with relatively low profitability and are now moving to sign contracts focused on high value-added vessels as prices continue to rise." While initial construction expense makes Korean ships 10%–20% more expensive, shipbuilders are persuading carriers that Korean ships are more economical when considering total operating costs such as fuel efficiency, reinforcing a strategy to win high value-added orders.
◇ Selective orders pay off… operating profit set to top 2 trillion won in Q1
The selective order strategy pursued by Korean shipbuilders for years is feeding through to improved results. As of the 8th, the first-quarter operating profit consensus (average of brokerage forecasts) for the three Korean shipbuilders stood at 1.9157 trillion won. The market expects the actual results to beat that. Brokerages see first-quarter operating profit at HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering at around 1.1838 trillion won, up more than 53% from a year earlier. Hanwha Ocean's operating profit is projected at around 383.3 billion won, up about 63% year over year, and Samsung Heavy Industries at around 348.6 billion won, up about 52%.
Their order books are also well stocked. So far this year, HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering has won orders for 68 ships worth $7.25 billion. Samsung Heavy Industries secured 16 ships ($3.1 billion), and Hanwha Ocean 15 ships ($2.84 billion), bringing the combined tally for the three to $13.19 billion. As of the end of last month, Korean shipbuilders' total order backlog stood at 36.35 million CGT, enough to keep yards busy for three to four years.
Han Young-soo, an analyst at Samsung Securities, said, "With solid order intake and ample workloads, shipbuilders have limited incentives to pursue low-priced orders going forward," adding, "Even as geopolitical uncertainty grows, shipbuilding has the capacity to sustain steadier growth than other manufacturing sectors."