The business outlook index for middle market enterprises rose for a third straight quarter, but it still remained below the baseline, leading analysts to say it is too early to expect a full-fledged recovery.
According to the "Second-quarter 2026 middle market enterprise business outlook survey" that the Federation of Middle Market Enterprises of Korea (FOMEK) released on the 2nd, the second-quarter business outlook index came in at 82.8, up 0.7 points (p) from the previous quarter. The business outlook index means that if it exceeds the baseline of 100, more corporations expect an improvement in conditions, and if it is below 100, the opposite is true.
By industry, both manufacturing and nonmanufacturing improved slightly. The second-quarter manufacturing business outlook index turned upward to 77.0, up 1.0p from the previous quarter, while nonmanufacturing rose 0.5p to 88.1. In manufacturing, primary metals and fabricated metal products rose 6.3p to 74.4, showing the biggest improvement, and in nonmanufacturing, construction jumped 12.5p to 80.4, leading the uptrend.
Exports, on the other hand, worsened. The second-quarter export outlook index for middle market enterprises fell 1.4p from the previous quarter to 89.9. The manufacturing export outlook index came in at 89.4, down 2.9p, while nonmanufacturing was tallied at 90.8, up 1.2p. In particular, manufacturing saw notable declines in key sectors such as electronic components and communications equipment, chemicals and petroleum products, and automobiles and trailers.
A FOMEK official explained, "Uncertainty in the global trade environment, including tariff confusion following a U.S. federal court ruling and unstable resource supply due to the Middle East conflict, affected the export outlook for manufacturing."
The domestic demand outlook improved slightly. The second-quarter domestic demand outlook index for middle market enterprises rose 1.3p from the previous quarter to 86.9, as gains in manufacturing offset declines in nonmanufacturing. In manufacturing, primary metals and fabricated metal products surged 14.3p, leading the rise. In contrast, nonmanufacturing saw declines in major sectors such as real estate, construction, and wholesale and retail.
Outlooks for key management indicators such as production, operating profit, and funding improved from the previous quarter. The second-quarter production outlook index rose 3.8p to 88.8 from the prior quarter, and the operating profit outlook index climbed 2.3p to 84.0. The funding outlook index also recorded 91.0, up 1.8p on improvements in manufacturing.
Park Yang-gyun, head of policy at FOMEK, said, "We must turn the middle market sector's perception of the economy— which recorded a modest uptrend despite worsening external conditions— into a breakthrough for strengthening industrial competitiveness," adding, "For a successful crisis response, solid public-private cooperation is essential. We will communicate closely with the government and the National Assembly so that an extraordinary national policy stance can be effectively linked to the self-help efforts at corporate worksites."