The full group BTS returned after three years, but HYBE shares plunged instead. Analysts said the usual "good news = share price rise" formula did not hold because much of the BTS comeback optimism had already been priced in, prompting investors to take profits after recent gains. There was also a read that on-site reactions confirmed at the comeback stage were not as overwhelming as expected. Market attention is shifting to how quickly it will translate into actual revenue.
On the 24th afternoon, HYBE shares were trading in the 290,000-won range. After closing in the 400,000-won range on the 19th of last month, the share price fell into the 300,000s but held there on expectations of a "full-group BTS comeback." However, after BTS's comeback stage on the 21st, it fell to 286,000 won the previous day, then ticked up slightly to hold around 290,000 won.
The entertainment industry and the securities market are offering the analysis that expectations already reflected in the share price have run their course. Since early this year, brokerages had fanned expectations with notes such as "BTS all year long, no need to worry about earnings for the time being" (Hana Securities) and "2026 will be the year when the full-group BTS comeback and global intellectual property (IP) take root."
From the point when the full-group BTS comeback became visible, expectations were priced in, and by the time the comeback materialized, the urge to take profits naturally outweighed further upside potential. The market has effectively begun to ask not about the return itself, but "how quickly it will be converted into profit."
"Uncertainty in the numbers" is also cited as a factor dragging down the share price. The BTS Gwanghwamun concert on the 21st was initially expected to draw 260,000 people. However, HYBE tallied attendance at 104,000 by reflecting estimates for subscribers of the three mobile carriers and budget phones, as well as foreign visitors.
The Ministry of the Interior and Safety's crowd management system, which is based on signals from the three mobile carriers, estimated around 62,000 people gathered. As the audience size differed for the same event, the market assessed the BTS stage using conservative figures. The gap between market expectations and reality became apparent.
Park Jun-hyung, an analyst at SK Securities, said, "Along with U.S.-Iran geopolitical risks, negative public opinion about the Gwanghwamun concert and the new song was reflected in the share price." He added, "In the preemptive response process that assumed an initial headcount of about 260,000, negative issues were raised," and noted, "Although on-site attendance was only around 40,000, the fact that it ended without any casualties should be viewed positively."
Some also say it has again been confirmed that HYBE is dependent on a particular artist. The market viewed that despite HYBE diversifying its portfolio through a multi-label strategy, whether BTS is active still serves as the variable that sways expectations. In 2022, ahead of BTS members' military enlistment, the share price fell nearly 24%, and from 2024 it turned upward again on expectations of a full-group comeback.
Separate from HYBE's share price volatility, the prevailing assessment is that BTS's influence remains solid. The new album ARIRANG sold 3.98 million copies in its first pressing and is continuing its run by climbing the upper ranks of Spotify's global chart. A world tour across 82 cities is also planned. Considering the structure that extends not only to large-scale world tour ticket sales but also to merchandise and fandom platforms, the revenue spillover effect is significant.
Lee Ki-hoon, an analyst at Hana Securities, said, "From April, a string of sellouts over the next 1 year and 3 months points to at least 1.5 trillion won in tour revenue," and assessed, "If the BTS world tour proceeds, the potential for an earnings surprise remains high."
An entertainment industry official said, "A key point to watch is how quickly the world tour and fandom spending are converted into profit," and noted, "Once this is confirmed, the share price trend will change again."